政治化到動員？ 2004-2016 年台灣首投族投票率的縱貫性研究

Politicized to Mobilize? A Longitudinal Study of First-Time Voters’ Voting Intentions in Taiwan, 2004-2016

近年台灣青年與新興選民的「崛起」，可視為是造成民進黨及泛綠陣營勝選的重要因素。西方國家的年輕選民多半政治冷漠，相較之下台灣的年輕選民政治積極性增高，算是一個異數。這一代台灣年輕選民，可能因為高度「政治化」，以致於更容易被「動員」。本篇文章探討：台灣新興選民是否受到「政治化」的影響，以及「政治化」是否能進而轉換為實質上的政治參與或投票行為。若以「台灣選舉與民主化調查」的縱貫性研究做為依據，探討首投族投票行為的常見模式，可以發現，首投族的投票意向與其他選民相比，並無太大的差異。他們的差異—儘管細微，取決於這些年輕人如何辨識不同的選項。這也可能是年輕人更為支持新政黨，而非傳統政黨的部分原因。

Much has been made about the “coming of age” of many Taiwanese young and new voters as an important factor contributing to the gratifying electoral result of the DPP and its pan-Green allies. The Taiwanese case, then, may be considered an aberration as the increased political activism among the younger Taiwanese voters stands in some contrast to the supposed apathy of their counterparts in the Western world. Indeed, this particular generation of young Taiwanese voters may have been “politicized” so much so that they are also easily “mobilized.” In this paper, we examine whether Taiwanese new voters are indeed politicized and whether their politicization translates to voting intentions. Using longitudinal TEDS surveys to detect common patterns of first-time voters’ voting behavior, preliminary results from our multivariate analysis indicate that first-time voters are not different in likelihood of participating in voting compared to other voters. The subtle difference, however, resides on the viable options with which these young cohorts can identify. This can be part of the reason they are more supportive of the new parties than merely the traditional parties.