台灣砂糖供需系統動態模擬分析

System Dynamic Simulation on Supply and Demand of Taiwan Sugar Industry

國內砂糖因生產成本偏高，逐年減少自行生產比例，轉而依賴進口砂糖供給以滿足需求，然而，國際糖價波動時，就會造成供需嚴重失衡。本研究透過系統動力學建構台灣砂糖系統動態供需模式，進行供需模擬分析，作為供需決策參考依據。首先，藉由訪談砂糖生產管理業者，了解目前供需實際情形與問題，接著，利用特性要因圖描繪出影響砂糖供需要素，進一步以系統動力學建構砂糖供需模式，最後，配合田口直交表進行模擬分析。模擬分析後發現，當種植面積與市場佔有率為高水準時較佳，即擴大種植面積來提高生產量，進而銷售量提高而增加收入。此外，擴大種植面積生產雖會導致庫存量增加、庫存成本增加，但一旦發生糖價波動時，可利用庫存量來調節砂糖價格，使砂糖價格趨於平穩。

Granulated sugar production cost is high in Taiwan and the production volume decreases year by year. Taiwan relies on imported granulated sugar to meet market demand. However, when the international price of sugar rises, it causes a serious imbalance between supply and demand. By cause-and-effect diagram, this study identified the factors affecting the supply and demand of granulated sugar, and further established the operational model of the overall system of the granulated sugar industry supply and demand for simulation analysis. System dynamic was used as the research method. Acreage, the amount of safety stock, and market shares were the factors of the supply and demand of the granulated sugar industry. Quantity, sales, and inventory were the response variables. The Taguchi orthogonal design was used to propose policy options. This study found that when acreage and market share are adjusted to high level, the safety stock amounts to be also high level. The findings can serve as a reference model for the business strategy of the demand and supply of granulated sugar in Taiwan.