產業政策推動對職業運動之動態影響研究

Research of the Dynamic Effects on Professional Athletics by Adopting Industrial Policy Promotion

創立職業運動對一個國家之業餘運動具有指標作用，職業運動員因有高超的技術與動作，引起業餘運動員的模仿和學習，進一步帶動起全民運動的風氣，對於提升運動人口也具有啟發性。同時，又有助於消弭社會上的衝突並強化人際間的凝聚力。本研究首先利用系統動力學理論，透過Vensim軟體，建置系統動力流圖（Stock-Flow Diagram）；藉由系統動力學的動態情境（Dynamic Situations）模擬，針對產業政策的推動對於職業運動與其相關人員，未來發展之影響進行動態性的模擬。並將模擬結果作為政策修訂的參考依據，這樣能讓政策推行起來更加順利，也使得人民所繳納的稅金花費的更有價值，亦增加政策施行的成功率。研究結果顯示，透過系統動力學的動態情境模擬（Situational Simulation）方式，模擬複雜產業政策系統隨時間之變化，對職業運動發展趨勢的影響。其政策情境之模擬結果顯示，未來兩年最佳政策配置之比重應採用中度的產業政策推動45%、職業運動員退休保障程度50%，則可獲得最大之效益。在許多不同的方案中，決策者如何以最短的時間做出正確的判斷實屬重要。因此，本研究之政策模擬模式，未來更可進一步依照實際環境與產業間互動的部分，建構更詳實完整的模型，讓整個系統的動力流圖更顯完整，而所得到的模擬結果能更精準提供管理者在做出政策推動時的重要參考資訊。

Establishing professional athletics plays an indicator role for amateur sports in our country. Professional athletes have superior techniques and actions which lead to imitate and learn from amateur athletes. It can facilitate the sports activities as national campaign and increase the sport populations. It can eliminate the social conflicts and strength the interpersonal cohesion as well. This study applies system dynamics theory by using Vensim software to develop Stock-Flow Diagrams. Through the simulations of dynamic situations, it simulates the future development of the professional athletics and the related staff according to the industrial policy promotion. The simulation results can become the reference basis for policy changes, which help policy promotion and increase the success rate of policy implementation. According to the results of this study, it indicates that the simulations of the complex industrial policy systems and the effectiveness of future developing trends of the professional athletics through the situational simulations of system dynamics. The results of the policy situational simulations show that the best policy deployment ratio should be 45% for adopting the moderate industrial policy promotion in the next two years, as well as 50% for the retirement protection level of professional athletes, in order to obtain the maximum benefits. As a result, it is important for decision makers to make the right choice among many different alternatives in the shortest time. The policy situational simulations proposed by this study can help future researchers develop more detailed and complete model according to the interactions between industries and the real environment. In addition, the simulation results of this study can help the Stock-Flow Diagrams become more complete and provide managers more precise reference information for the policy promotion.