英文摘要 |
Establishing professional athletics plays an indicator role for amateur sports in our country. Professional athletes have superior techniques and actions which lead to imitate and learn from amateur athletes. It can facilitate the sports activities as national campaign and increase the sport populations. It can eliminate the social conflicts and strength the interpersonal cohesion as well. This study applies system dynamics theory by using Vensim software to develop Stock-Flow Diagrams. Through the simulations of dynamic situations, it simulates the future development of the professional athletics and the related staff according to the industrial policy promotion. The simulation results can become the reference basis for policy changes, which help policy promotion and increase the success rate of policy implementation. According to the results of this study, it indicates that the simulations of the complex industrial policy systems and the effectiveness of future developing trends of the professional athletics through the situational simulations of system dynamics. The results of the policy situational simulations show that the best policy deployment ratio should be 45% for adopting the moderate industrial policy promotion in the next two years, as well as 50% for the retirement protection level of professional athletes, in order to obtain the maximum benefits. As a result, it is important for decision makers to make the right choice among many different alternatives in the shortest time. The policy situational simulations proposed by this study can help future researchers develop more detailed and complete model according to the interactions between industries and the real environment. In addition, the simulation results of this study can help the Stock-Flow Diagrams become more complete and provide managers more precise reference information for the policy promotion. |