應用多變量迴歸樹分析全國性侵害通報數據之研究

The Study and Analysis on National Sexual Assault Reports data through application of Multivariate Regression Trees

台灣對於性侵害官方資料的處理，大都只是做數據的呈現，對於性侵害相關的因子鮮少進行較深入的探討，尤其是青少年性侵害的部分，在官方資料的呈現或相關因子的探討上均為有限。本研究為探勘性研究，透過採用多變量迴歸樹(Multivariate Regression Trees)，以全國及區域性、加害者、被害者及加被害者兩造間關係等相關屬性為分析變項，呈現全國及區域性、加害者、被害者及加害被害者間相關屬性的關鍵因素，並探勘出與青少年性侵害相關各該分析變項的關鍵因素。本研究針對2008-2014年「性侵害被害人通報性別案件數」、「全國每十萬人性侵犯案件數」等兩個資料集進行探勘。研究結果發現，犯罪地點方面，以「公共廁所」、「被害人住所」為主要因子；加害人方面，「男性」、「年齡不詳」、「鄰居」為關鍵因子；被害人方面：「男性」、「12-18歲」、「本國藉原住民」、「職業不詳」、「國中程度」是造成2008-2014年全國每十萬人性侵犯案件數差異的主要因子。本研究建議，政府應宣導青少年、學生留意熟識者之間所為之性侵害案件，另外一方面強化警方針對公共廁所之巡邏，以避免公共廁所成為性侵或性交之熱點。此外，建議地方政府及司法單位重視性侵害事件之處理，尤其針對原住民、男性受害者等易受忽視族群，並應擬定相關政策，強化此些族群之性教育知識及自我保護觀念。

In Taiwan, the official sexual assault information is merely a data presentation, but the factors related to sexual assaults are rarely discussed in depth. Especially in the part of teenagers, there are very limited data and factors discussions. This study is an exploratory research, through the method of Multivariate Regression Trees, using the national and regional data of associated attributes of perpetrators and victims, and the relationships between the both as variables for analysis to present thenational and regional key factors of associated attributes between perpetrators and victims, and explore the key analysis variables of juvenile sexual assaults. This study is based on data of “The gender and number of Reported Cases of Sexual Assault Victims’” and “National number of cases per 100,000 people of sexual assault’” between years 2008 to 2014. The results showed that the main crime location factors were “public restrooms” and “victims’ residence”; offenders’ key factors were “male”, 'age unknown' and 'neighbor'. The key factors of the victims were 'male', '12-18 years old', 'national aboriginal', 'occupation unknown' and “middle school as highest education level ' , that caused the difference in the number of cases of sexual assaults per 100,000 people between 2008 and The research suggests that the Government authorities should advocacy the teenagers and students to be more aware of acquaintance sexual assault cases. On the other hand strengthen police patrols for public restrooms to avoid becoming hot spots of sexual assaults or sexual activities. In addition, it is recommended that the local governments and the judicial units to attach attention when address to the sexual abuse incidents, in particular the vulnerable easily neglected groups like aboriginal and male victims, also formulate relevant policies to strengthen the sexual knowledge and self-protection of these ethnic groups.