應用空間統計於桃園地區土地利用變遷因素分析

Application of Spatial Statistics to Analyze Land Use Change Factors in the Taoyuan Area

工業區開發與交通建設吸引大量人口移入，使桃園市近年發展迅速，並帶動土地利用變遷。受歷史、政治脈絡影響，呈現北桃園、南中壢的雙元發展特性。然而過往土地利用變遷研究多忽略地理分布現象所具有的空間特性，使模式推導產生偏誤，對此空間統計方法的創新有助於處理此類空間效應問題。本研究目的在於瞭解桃園地區建成地變遷的分布型態與影響因素，並檢視空間效應的影響。先以空間自相關指標偵測建成地變遷的空間型態；進一步利用地理加權迴歸探討建成地變遷之影響因素，以及空間異質性的作用效力。研究結果顯示，桃園地區於1995-2006 年間建成地大量增加，在中壢平鎮市區外圍、桃園市區外圍、龜山公西地區發展最快。由局部迴歸係數得知，人口密度變遷與三級產業員工成長在桃園區北區、蘆竹、龜山、大園等地對建成地變遷有較高的影響性；二級產業員工成長的效應侷限於沿海地區；原工業用地比例於桃園區、八德區負向效應最大；與交流道距離僅在林口、中壢、內壢、大湳等特定交流道周邊有較高影響性；與火車站距離、原農業用地比例、原空置地比例三者在桃園市區、八德市、中壢平鎮市區等核心區域佔關鍵。總體而言，桃園地區建成地變遷因素具有明顯的南北、城鄉差異性。

A large amount of immigration attracted by the development of industrial areas and transportation construction has caused Taoyuan City to develop rapidly, and led to land use changes. Influenced by the historical and political context, there are dual developmental traits of Taoyuan District in the north and Chungli District in the south. However, most past research on land use changes neglected the spatial traits of the phenomena of geographical distribution, causing bias against the derivation of patterns. Innovation in spatial statistics methods has helped handle spatial effect problems. The purpose of this research is to help understand the distribution patterns and the influencing factors of the changes in the built-up areas of Taoyuan district, and examine the influence the spatial effects have had. This study used a spatial autocorrelation index to detect the spatial patterns of the built-up area change; furthermore, we used Geographically Weighted Regression to examine the influencing factors of the changes in the built-up areas, and the effectiveness of spatial heterogeneity. The results of the research show built-up areas dramatically increased in the Taoyuan area from 1995 to 2006. In recent years the districts have developed the fastest in the peri-urban areas of Chulgli-Pingzhen as well as the peri-urban areas of Taoyuan District, and Gongsi, Guishan. We know from the local regression coefficient of Semiparametric Geographically Weighted Regression that, the changes in population density and growth of employees in the tertiary sector in such areas as the northern part of Taoyuan District, Luzhu, Guishan, Dayuan, have had a greater impact on the changes in built-up areas; effects of growth of employees in the secondary sector are confined to coastal districts; the proportion of negative effects is the largest in the original industrial land of Taoyuan District and Bade District; the changes in the build-up areas have had a greater impact on the distance from interchanges-only around specific interchanges, such as Linkou, Chungli, Neili, Danan-; the distance from train stations, the proportion of original agricultural land, and the proportion of original vacant land, these three in such core areas as Taoyuan District, Bade District, Chulgli-Pingzhen District, are crucial to the changes in the built-up areas. Overall, the factors of the changes of built-up areas in Taoyuan area show great differences between the north and south, as well as urban and rural areas.