從統獨到中國因素：政治認同變動對投票行為的影響

From Unification-Independence Divide to the China Factor: How Changing Political Identity Influences Voting Behavior

「中國因素」對台灣選舉政治的影響力，正在增加當中，使得存在已久之「國家認同分歧」，產生複雜的變化。中國因素通過經濟、政治、新聞媒體、文化等領域，滲透到台灣內部，可能正在改變台灣幾十年來的「統獨認知圖像」。本文使用中央研究院中國效應研究小組的中國效應問卷調查，發現在2012年總統選舉投票行為中，「中國因素」變項對「國家認同」選項，幾乎有取代的作用。據此，作者嘗試提出初步的詮釋架構，探討這些發現，對台灣政治與兩岸關係等研究可能帶來的重大意義。透過深究台灣選民態度的變化，也可以檢證國際政治經濟學理論中，關於強國如何透過經貿依賴關係而影響弱國的國內政治之假設。十幾年來，中國政府利用台灣對其經貿依賴而試圖影響台灣的總統選舉結果；本文初步發現，中國因素可能正在影響台灣選民關於「國家認同」內涵的認知，並影響部分選民的投票行為。近年在台灣，階級政治似有浮現的趨勢；本文檢證發現，「階級投票」並不顯著，此發現不同於既有文獻，值得進一步探討。

The “China factor” has increasingly penetrated Taiwan’s electoral politics and is complicating the role that “national identity cleavage” has conventionally played in Taiwan. The China factor may have also caused a change in Taiwan’s “unification-independence cognitive map” through its influence on politics, economy, news media and cultural sphere. Using the survey data collected by the China Impact Studies Group of the Academia Sinica, this paper found that in the presidential election in 2012, the “China factor” variables are likely replacing the function of “national identity” variables in a variety of contexts. We attempt to provide a preliminary analytical framework to explore the significance of the findings and attempt to substantiate the proposition that trade and economic dependence is the key factor in a regional power’s ability to influence the domestic politics of a small country. We found that the Chinese government indeed leveraged Taiwan’s trade and economic dependence to intervene in Taiwanese elections, and the China factor has indirectly led to a number of subtle effects on Taiwanese voters’ cognition of national identity. In addition, there has emerged a new class politics in Taiwan in recent years. However, we found that “class voting” is not significant. This finding differs from other findings in the current literature on class politics and deserves further exploration.