陸客對我國貿易與就業之影響

The Impact of Mainland Tourist on the Trade and Employment of Taiwan

本研究首先採用歷年之觀光統計年報資料，運用Granger因果關係檢定和誤差修正模型對大陸來台旅客與貿易和就業做一檢視，估計結果顯示：台灣與世界之貿易或兩岸貿易總額上升，將增加就業之假說，本文證實二者呈正向關係；陸客來台愈頻繁，兩岸貿易總額將會增加之假說，本文證實二者沒有顯著正向關係說明陸客來台並非以貿易為導向；陸客來台人數愈多，服務業就業將會增加之假說，本文證實二者呈正向關係。2013年1-2月台灣全體之就業人數分別為10,805,000和10,934,000人。

With the data of tourist of Taiwan, this study adopts Granger causality test and error correction model to exam the relationship among mainland tourist, trade and employment of Taiwan. The results show that trade (both international trade and cross-trait trade) stimulates growth in employment and mainland tourist arrivals to the island. Furthermore, growth in the mainland tourist would not necessary stimulates an increase in international and cross-trait trade. Finally, we adopt VECM to estimate the employment of Taiwan in Jan and Feb of 2013. The figures of these two months are 10.805 million and 10.934 million respectively.