毛豬口蹄疫爆發對臺灣肉類消費之影響

The Impact of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic on the Consumption of Meat in Taiwan

本文探討毛豬口蹄疫爆發對臺灣肉類消費型態之影響。研究中，利用一線型近似理想需求體系模型估測臺灣豬肉、牛肉與雞肉之消費。研究結果顯示口蹄疫爆發導致其爆發後兩個月之豬肉消費急劇地下降。消費者傾向以雞肉替代豬肉。且牛肉價格與牛肉購買支出均顯著地增加，亦顯示出口蹄疫爆發後，牛肉對豬肉的替代效果。

The paper addresses the important impact of the outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) on the meat consumption pattern in Taiwan. A linear almost ideal demand system model is employed to estimate the consumption for pork, beef, and chicken in Taiwan. Research results reveal that the consumption pattern for pork, beef, and chicken tends to favor chicken over pork. The outbreak of FMD caused a sharp reduction in pork consumption lasting for two months. Accordingly, the beef price and expenditure increased significantly. Such fact implies that consumers preferred the substitute of beef for pork right after the outbreak of FMD.