歐洲中小型國家安全政策：策略選擇與轉型

Security Policies of European Medium and Small States: Strategies and Transformation

歐洲歷經兩極體系瓦解與區域整合不斷推進的國際局勢，處在歐洲大陸的眾多國家各自發展出不同的安全策略、採取多種途徑保障本身國家安全， 我們認為歐洲國家的安全策略選擇有其路徑可循，本文著重討論此種策略選擇的因素分析。在案例揀選上，本文特別著重歐洲中小型國家安全策略選擇，這主要是因為過去相當長的時間國際關係學多著重於大國安全研究，對中小型國家重視程度仍有待提升，因此本文擬從中小型國家著手，分析這一群國家安全策略選擇。安全策略選擇模式建立上，本文認為中小型國家親歐或親俄安全選擇是政策天然選項，這主要是因為權力競逐過程中，中小型國家為能鞏固安全環境而不得不作出的政策調整，不過此種選擇彼此有異同處，本文希望能找出這些中小型國家安全政策選擇關鍵所在，並建立一個中小型國家策略抉擇的模型分析。本文首先區分歐俄權力競逐中間地帶的 16 個國家地緣分布， 以此作為親歐親俄政策選擇之地緣政治觀點。其次將從這些不同群組國家的親歐親俄政策路線進行分類，依其加入歐洲各式政經軍組織之國際協定，判斷其親歐與親俄的策略選擇。最後將討論這些中小型國家安全策略選項的要素分析，嘗試釐清這一群組國家選擇的內外因素。

The European continent has been free of great wars since the end of Cold War. This article assesses security studies in international relations by focusing on middle ground states' strategic choices in relation to great powers. We argue that Small and Medium States (SMSs) idespread in Eastern Europe, Balkan Peninsula and South Caucasus have their strategic calculations in shaping their security choices. The article posits that the decision-making process of SMSs' security policies rests upon differentiated and cross-pollinated factors. Balancing, bandwagoning, neutrality, accommodation and transformation are features of SMSs' choices. The author employs SMSs' international participation as variables in explaining their security choices and uses a mix of elements of political/economic factors in analyzing those states reacting to neighboring powers. We find that geopolitics and regional integration are crucial in shaping Europe's security environment, while domestic and responsive factors co-construct SMSs' policy formation. In conclusion, we seek to understand the implications of our analysis of SMSs' security choices.