中印戰略夥伴關係的發展與限制

Development and Limitation of the China-India Strategic Partnership

2005年，印度與中國建立了「戰略合作夥伴關係」（strategic cooperative partnership），給予外界中印關係改善的印象。在現實情況中，中印的戰略夥伴關係呈現出在安全與經濟上的落差，較類似兩個原本敵意深重的發展中國家，為了經濟發展所進行的策略聯盟，以經濟發展為重，而與安全合作及解決主權與邊界爭議較無關。本文從決策者進行合作時的利益與成本考量的角度，探討中印「戰略夥伴關係」的發展前景。中印建構戰略夥伴關係，是決策者嘗試合作；是否能成功，取決於合作決策者認為合作能得到的利益比不合作得到的利益要來得高。在合作利益與各種合作成本的考量之下，包括決策者的政治利益與風險考量，形塑了中印戰略夥伴關係的原則以及特點，包括「發展中國家」身分、經濟主軸、強調平等、以及變動性。但是這些原則與特點，有時反而會增加中印之間的信任赤字，對於中印戰略夥伴關係的發展與政經與安全方面的合作，造成局限性。「戰略夥伴關係」是務實交往的策略之一，短期內可維持邊界的和平，但未來實質合作的發展性將可能受到限制。

In 2005, China and India established a “strategic cooperative partnership,” which led to rising optimism about China-India relations. This article discusses prospects of the China-India strategic partnership from the perspective of benefit and cost. The China-India strategic partnership is regarded as an attempt by the leaders of the two countries to change bilateral relations from non-cooperation to cooperation. The key to successful transformation lies in the fact that decision makers of both sides can recognize that common interests gained from cooperation is higher than interests gained from non-cooperation and independent action. A lack of mutual trust between China and India is the main reason for high costs of cooperation. The foundation and principles upon which the strategic partnership is constructed, characteristics of common interests including common identity as developing countries, economy focus, emphasis on equality, volatility, often increase the trust deficit. As a result, cooperation between China and India on politics, economy and security has been limited. For China and India, the strategic cooperative partnership has been a move of pragmatic engagement. In the short term, peace along the border can be maintained. However, substantial cooperation for mid- and long-term might be limited.