戒律式民主的脆弱轉型：緬甸2015年國會大選的意義

The Fragile Transformation of Disciplined Democracy: implications of Myanmar's 2015General Election

2015年11月，緬甸完成了歷史性的國會大選，由翁山蘇姬（Aung San Suu Kyi）帶領的全國民主聯盟一如外界預期獲得勝選。2016年3月，緬甸新國會即將產生新的總統，進一步成為挑戰軍系勢力、推動戒律式民主（disciplined democracy）再改造的關鍵領導人。緬甸民主發展正面臨脆弱轉型之際，儘管全民盟的勝選有利於延續緬甸之春（Burma Spring）的改革能量，但鑲嵌在制度設計中的各種「透明的不正義」（transparent injustice），卻也預留了軍系保守勢力逆襲的可能性。有鑒於此，本文將先探討促成緬甸之春的內生動力，對照國際社會對於緬甸近期政治發展的評估，進而論證本次國會大選對於緬甸新局的意義。

Myanmar has successfully held its general election on November 82015. As predicted, the National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Daw Aung San Suu Ki won the election, becoming the majority in the parliament. A new president, according to the Constitution, will be elected by the NLD- led parliament by March 2016, who may push forward political transformationof disciplined democracy while challenging Tatmadaw. The winning of NLD will, for sure, invigorate Burma Spring; however, transparent njustice embedded in the Constitutional setting still consolidates a role and capacity of Tatmadaw in domestic politics. This paper intends to discuss the driving forces of Burma Spring in line with international assessments on Myanmar political development since 2010. It then concludes with the discussion of promises and discontents of Myanmar's general election in 2015.