人民幣國際化的現況、路徑與策略分析

On the Internationalization of the Renminbi: Its Current State, Road Map and Strategies

本文根據國際貨幣的內涵與貨幣國際化的前提條件，分析中國推動人民幣國際化的主要措施與目前人民幣國際化的程度，並評估人民幣國際化的未來展望。由於國際貨幣的使用具有很強的慣性，以美元與歐元為主的國際貨幣具有先占者優勢，加上中國的資本管制與金融發展程度偏低等因素的制約，人民幣要成為全球性的國際貨幣，應該是很遙遠的事。但是基於地緣關係、經貿關係與相對的經濟實力，短期內（例如3至5年）人民幣應該可以在周邊國家扮演貿易計價貨幣的角色。如果中國能夠在這段期期間逐步實現利率自由化與匯率自由化，放鬆資本管制，並提高金融市場發展程度，人民幣可望逐漸在亞洲地區發揮國際貨幣的功能。

Based on the connotation of international currency and the preconditions of currency internationalization, this paper investigates the measures taken by the Chinese government to promote the internationalization of the RMB and assesses the current state and prospect of the RMB as an international currency. As the hierarchy of international currencies has a strong inertia, together with strict capital controls and a low level of financial development in China, it will take quite a long time before the RMB emerges as a global currency rival to the Euro and US dollar. Nevertheless, the RMB could become a major invoice currency of trade in Asia in perhaps three to five years, due to China's dominant position in this region. In the meantime, if China would let the market decide interest and exchange rates, open up its capital and financial accounts, and develop its financial markets, the RMB could ascend as an international currency in Asia.