美國重返亞洲對中日兩國戰略競爭的影響(2011-2016)——安全困境理論的分析視野

Examining the Impact of the U.S. Return to Asia on Sino-Japanese Strategic Competition (2011-2016) —A Perspective of the Security Dilemma Theory

美國重返亞洲對中日戰略競爭造成什麼影響？本文認為，中日兩國的戰略競爭是隨著美國重返亞洲而迅速地走向惡化。原先美日同盟所具備之「嚇阻中國及北韓武力威脅」與「壓制日本再軍事化」的雙重作用，一方面正被中國迅速的軍備擴張所突破，另一方面則是被日本安全政策的改變所挑戰。其關鍵乃是北京在經濟與軍事上的崛起。此發展已悄然地改變ThomasChristensen於1999年所提出的論點——美日同盟的建立可以降低中日之間的安全困境問題，並削弱雙方發生軍備競賽、軍事衝突、戰爭的可能性。

What is the impact of the U.S. return to Asia on Sino-Japanese strategic competition? This paper argues that as Washington pivots to the Asia-Pacific, situation of their competition deteriorates quickly. Previously, the U.S.-Japan alliance, as described in Thomas Christen-sen’s theory in 1999, possessed dual deterrence and was able to pre-serve peace and stability in East Asia—deterring military threats from China and North Korea, andpreventing the remilitarialization of Ja-pan. Currently, however, these functions have been disrupted by China’s military modernization and challenged by Japan’s security transformation. The key to this situation is Beijing’s rise, economi-cally and militarily, in recent years. This development is subtly un-dermining Christensen’s 1999 argument that the U.S.-Japan alliance could resolve problems associated with the China-Japan security di-lemma and lower the likelihood of arms races, military confronta-tions, and war between these two nations.