老農福利津貼制度永續性之初探

A Study on the Sustainability of the Old-Age Farmers Welfare Allowance Scheme

自 2008 年 10 月 1 日實施國民年金保險制度之後，臺灣的老年所得保障制度，以社會保險制度為主流的保障形式，只有農民的老年所得保障不在其中，其係以福利津貼的形式，提供免繳費制的給付，此制度已實施 20年，過去的 16 年為普及式發給，近 4 年才修改為資產調查式，本研究的主要目的在探討此福利津貼型態的永續性，並以時間序列方法預測未來的財務負擔，資料來源為勞動部勞工保險局 2007 年 1 月至 2015 年 4 月每月老農福利津貼支出金額之統計資料，共計 100 筆觀察值，預測未來 8 年財務負擔趨勢，並進一步分析其存續的困難問題及永續性發展的建議方向。

Since the Taiwan government implemented the National Pension System on October 1, 2008, its old-age pension has established a social insurance system as its main support type. However, farmers’ old-age pensions were not included in this program, but rather were allocated as a non-contributory benefit. This 20-year scheme was disbursed universally for 16 years; however, for the last four years, the welfare allowance has been modified into a means-tested program. This study examined the type and sustainability of this non-contributory welfare benefit, using the time series analysis method to forecast future financial expenditures. The monthly spending data on the old-age farmers welfare allowance program from January 2007 to April 2015 were collected from the Bureau of Labor Insurance of the Ministry of Labor; it comprised a total of 100 observations. An 8-year trend of financial expenditure was estimated. In addition, the program’s sustainable problems were analyzed, and possible system reforms recommended.