以網路策略模型探討國際貨櫃航運發展趨勢

A STRATEGIC NETWORK MODEL FOR GLOBAL CONTAINER SHIPPING TREND

海運產業之運作乃一多樣而高度複雜的系統，易受外在環境影響而不斷變化，本研究主要目的係透過國際航運網路模型的構建，評估在不同的外在情境變化下海運航線的未來趨勢，以協助相關機關了解潛在風險或契機，降低決策環境的不確定性。同時，根據目前實際貨櫃需求量與港口裝卸資料，校估本研究所發展之貨物指派模式，以取得符合實務營運之模式參數，藉此提升模型預測的準確性。並進一步運用於情境分析，評估未來外部環境變化對海運產業之影響，作為相關機關之參考，協助其適時研擬相關政策與發展策略，以維持國家港群於世界海運網路之定位，並提升於亞太地區轉運之競爭力。

Maritime industry is a highly complex system, and sensitive to today’s rapidly changing environment. The paper aims to develop a strategic model to accommodate the changes in the liner shipping markets and evaluate the trend of shipping, and thus can help relevant stakeholders to capture the risk or opportunities and then reduce the uncertainty for decision making. The model is calibrated using realistic data and then employed to evaluate the possible variation under various scenarios in future marine market and the impact on global ports, so that the relevant authorities can formulate proper polices to maintain the competitiveness of their own ports in Asia-Pacific region.