臺灣總統大選對股價指數之影響研究

The Impact of Taiwan’s Presidential Elections on the Stock Price Indexes

本研究使用 1995 至 2016 年第 10 至 14 屆總統大選前後電子指數、金融指數、非電金指數及大盤之數據進行分析，經過嚴謹的實證過程獲得以下結論：除了第 13 屆電子指數在總統大選前後期間的波動較大外，其餘各屆都是金融指數的波動較大。顯見總統大選金融類股應是資金聚焦所在。另外由圖形分析，除了第 12屆馬英九總統第一任選前有行情外，其餘各屆選前沒有顯著行情，選後才有行情。最後由 Chow 檢定的結果加以觀察，除了第 10 屆陳水扁總統第一任的金融指數與第 12屆馬英九總統第一任的電子指數選前選後並沒有結構性的改變，其餘各屆總統大選，各指數幾乎皆有結構性的改變。

This study makes use of the data analyses of electronics sub-index, finance and insurance sub-index, non-finance non-electronics sub-index, and market index in TWSE (Taiwan Stock Exchange) before and after the Taiwan presidential elections from 1995 through 2016. The empirical results specify that the finance and insurance sub-index fluctuates wildly before and after the Taiwan presidential elections, in contrast, the electronics sub-index reveals larger fluctuations before and after the 13th election in 2012. Evidently, funds focus on financial stocks during presidential election periods. With the graphical analysis, there are no bull runs prior to the elections, except the 2008 election in which Ma Ying-jeou first won the presidency. On the other hand, the market has bull runs following the elections. Based on the results of Chow test, the finance and insurance sub-index does not fluctuate significantly before and after the 2000 election, Chen Shui-bian’s first winning the presidential race, and there is no significant change in the electronics sub-index before and after the 2008 election, Ma Ying-jeou’s first term as president. Excluding the elections of 2000 and 2008, the indices exhibit structural changes during the pre-election and post-election periods.