英文摘要 |
Global warming is a scientific as well as a political issue. Because of the complexity of global climate systems, scientists rely not upon experiments in the traditional sense but upon computer simulation in the evaluation of the relative impact of natural and anthropogenic factors in climate change. The uncertainties involved in computer simulation make its findings (and their potentially grave implications) vulnerable to the question of political manipulation in the name of science. This article reviews the technical controversies over computer simulation in climate science. It begins by introducing the complex relationships between simulation, model, theory, and experiment, followed by a short review of the history of climate simulation. This article explores the issue of uncertainty by focusing on two controversial practices in climate simulation. Despite the uncertainties, climate simulation is confirmed to a considerable degree by the evidence. |