農業生產者對農藥使用的異質風險認知與農藥使用量決策分析──解構式計畫行為理論與受限分量迴歸的應用

Heterogeneous Risk Perceptions of Agricultural Producers on Pesticide Use and Pesticide Use Decision Analysis: Application of the Decomposed Theory of Planned Behaviour and Censored Quantile Regression

本文應用解構式計畫行為理論， 並結合貝式學習架構（ Bayesianlearning framework），以受限分量迴歸進行正、負向風險認知，對不同農藥使用程度的農業生產者之農藥使用量決策分析。結果顯示，當對農藥使用的正、負向風險認知程度越高，農業生產者會有越高的機率使用法令規定許可的農藥。其中正向風險認知，雖然不管對高、低使用量的農業生產者之農藥使用量都會造成影響，但隨著使用量的增加，影響的係數與顯著性也隨之增加。而負向風險認知，則是對低使用量的農業生產者的農藥使用量有顯著的負向影響，但對高使用量的農業生產者，影響卻不顯著。

This study uses the decomposed theory of planned behaviour,combined with a Bayesian learning framework to determine positive andnegative risk perceptions using censored quantile regression. With thiswe will perform a pesticide use decision analysis of the usage of differentpesticides. The result shows that agricultural producers have a higherchance of using pesticides with regulations permitted when theseproducers have higher positive or negative risk perceptions of pesticideuse. Positive risk perceptions have an effect on the pesticide use of theagricultural producers regardless of high or low usage. However, theinfluence coefficient and significance increase when total usage increases.Negative risk perceptions have a significant negative effect on thepesticide use of agricultural producers with low total usage, but they donot significantly affect the pesticide use of agricultural producers with ahigh total usage.