兩岸農產品貿易對台灣經濟影響分析一區域投入產出分析

The Taiwan’s Economic Impact of Cross-strait Agricultural Trade: Regional Input-Output Analysis

本文以Miller 與 Blair (2009) 區域投入產出模型及林幸君 (2013)所編算2006 年96 部門兩岸投入產出連結表，分析兩岸農產品貿易對台灣相關產業及整體經濟所帶來直接及間接影響，並透過所建構情境模擬設計，分別利用需求面及供給面區域投入產出模型評估。本文共設計三個模擬情境，其中模擬一以2009-2012 年台灣農產品對中國出口及淨出口金額為直接衝擊，探討近年兩岸農產品貿易對台灣產業及整體經濟影響，包含目前已實現的ECFA 效果及替代效果。模擬二以ECFA 實施後，以2011-2012 年台灣農產品出口至中國，因ECFA 致關稅下降之獲利金額為直接衝擊，探討對台灣產業及整體經濟影響，這部分僅限於ECFA 實施之降稅效果。目前ECFA 諮商我國未給予中國任何一項農產品早收優惠，並繼續管制830 項中國農產品進口，且已經開放的1,415項農產品也不降稅。模擬三以若未來因開放中國產品輸入台灣，可能替代台灣產品致產出影響金額為直接衝擊，探討未來對台灣經濟可能產生的影響。本文綜合三種模擬情境實證結果比較，雖然ECFA 實施後，台灣對中國出口之總產出效果為正效益，惟以淨出口計算為負效益，加以因降稅獲利之效益雖可彌補淨出口計算之負效益。若未來開放中國農產品進口至台灣，在考慮中國進口品對台灣產品替代之更大負效益下，則兩岸農產品貿易對台灣整體經濟所帶來直接及間接衝擊恐高於效益。在各農產品中發現漁產與其他食品出口及淨出口之產出效果皆高，且因降稅獲利之總產出效果亦高，顯示此兩部門為近年兩岸農產品貿易之台灣受益部門，惟若未來開放中國農產品進口至台灣，在考慮中國進口品對台灣產品替代效果下，則農業、漁業、其他食品部門則將淪為主要受到衝擊之產業。

This study uses Regional Input-Output analysis by Miller and Blair(2009) and the 96 sectors Cross-straits Regional Input-Output tablecompiled by Lin (2013) to analyze the direct and indirect impact ofagricultural products in related industries and the overall economics. Thestudy simulates the following three scenarios. Firstly, the amount ofTaiwan's agricultural exports to China and the amount of net exportsduring 2009-2012 to investigate the economic impact in Taiwan whichincludes ECFA and the substitution effect. Secondly, Taiwan's earningsamount of agricultural exports due to the real effect by tax reduction afterthe implementation of the ECFA. This effect only includes the taxreduction effect because Taiwan does not offer any early closing deal inagricultural goods in ECFA and still controls the 830 goods import fromChina and no tariff reduction in 1,415 commodities. Thirdly, the studyestimate the real impact on the substitution between Cross-straitcommodities if the removal of the ban on Chinese goods into Taiwan inthe future. Compare of three scenarios empirical results comprehensively,this study find there will be a positive benefit in total output effect ofTaiwan's exports to China and profitable due to tariff reduction althoughthe implementation of ECFA will generate negative results in net exports.There has negative overall effect if opening of China's agricultural imports from Taiwan in the future. This study also found in fishery andother food exports and the net exports of output results are high, and thetotal output due to the effect of the tariff reduction benefit is also high,indicating that for the two departments in Taiwan, the Cross-straitagricultural trade will benefits department, except that if the futureopening of China's agricultural imports to Taiwan, in considering theChinese imports of Taiwan under the effect of product substitution, thenthe three sectors will be reduced mainly by the impact of the opening.