台灣食品加工業對外投資與產業空洞化之分析

FDI and the Hollowing-Out of Taiwan’s Food Industry

學界過去關於對外投資是否會造成產業空洞化這個議題的討論多半針對製造業整體或電子產業，本文以傳統製造業的食品業作為分析對象，希望藉此探究傳統產業所面臨的問題，並進一步檢視食品廠商存活與營收成長的決定因子。我們以民國80 及85 年工商業及服務業的抽查資料進行Heckman 的兩階段迴歸分析，實證結果發現，無論是以營業額或雇用人數衡量，技術人員比例與研發密集度是影響食品業廠商成長的重要因素。文中分以兩種迴歸模型來檢驗對外投資的影響。結果顯示，雖然過去有部分的學者認為食品產業有可能面臨空洞化的困境，但若是從廠商營業額或雇用人員成長的角度來看，即便食品產業有空洞化的跡象，廠商的對外投資並不是造成這個現象的主要因素。

This study examines the effects of foreign direct investment on thesurvival and growth performance of Taiwan’s food processing firms.Previous empirical work on firm growth focuses on initial firm-specificconditions to explain the observed heterogeneity of growth rates,whereas most studies on foreign direct investment investigate its effectson the manufacturing sectors or the electronics industry. To fill theempirical gap, this study provides econometric evidences on therelationship of foreign direct investment to firm-level growth. Our resultssuggest that while expansionary FDI raises the probability of survivingcompetition, defensive FDI shows an insignificant effect on survival. Asfor the effects of FDI on firm growth, our results suggest that both typesof FDI are neutral to growth. Although a few indicators suggest aprofound change of the structure of Taiwan’s food processing industrysince 1986, these results suggest refuting the notion that FDI may havecaused such change.