企業財務比率分析、成長性預測與投資策略探究

Corporate Financial Analysis, Growth Prediction and Profitable Investment Strategies

本研究參考Wahlen and Wieland（2011）模型，嘗試整合多項財務比率以形成盈餘增長分數（PEIS），針對臺灣上市櫃企業，透過財報分析技巧及指標分數篩選投資標的，預期公司未來成長性、進而擬定適當的投資策略。選樣2006年至2013年臺灣上市櫃公司財務資料，透過六項財務指標、建構PEIS模型，研究結果發現：（1）在企業盈餘成長預測能力上，與Wahlen and Wieland（2011）結果略有出入，一方面可能反映臺灣企業的資本投資與成長反轉速度較慢，亦或顯示PEIS模型應用在臺灣企業成長預測的限制性。（2）在企業股價報酬的預測能力上，發現PEIS分數具良好預測力，研究結果發現PEIS越高（低）者，未來有顯著的正（負）異常報酬。本研究更進一步地建議投資人，可藉由此財務分析綜合指標形成投資組合、建構投資操作策略，建議投資人可買入PEIS分數最高之投資組合，並對應賣出PEIS分數最低投資組合，可獲利年報酬率34.16%。

This paper applies the predicted earnings increase score (PEIS) model by using the information from multiple financial statement ratios, documented in Wahlen and Wieland (2011). In this study, we collect financial data of Taiwanese firms listed on TWSE/TPEx from 2006 through 2013 and examine whether the PEIS can predict future growth of those firms' earnings or stock returns. The empirical results find: (1) the predictability of firms' future growth of earning are inconsistent with results shown in Wahlen and Wieland (2011). Therefore, our results imply that the speed of mean reversion in capital investment and earnings growth of Taiwanese firms may be slower than the U.S. firms or indicate that the limitation for PEIS model in predicting Taiwanese firms' growth of earnings. (2) Consistently, we find that the pronounced and positive correlation between PEIS and future stock return. Accordingly, this study suggests that investors can create profitable strategy by taking long positions in the highest-PEIS stocks against equally weighted short positions in the lowest- PEIS stocks. The zero-investment strategy captures the abnormal annual returns of 34.16%.