台灣稻米損失函數之估計及其天然災害保險費率之計算

An Estimation of Rice Damage Function by Typhoon and the Premium Calculation of Disaster Insurance in Taiwan

本文之主要研究目的在於應用計量的方法估計出台灣各地區稻作因颱風所造成之損失函數，接著以此損失函數為基礎來試算出實施天然災害保險下，台灣各地區稻作之保費費率。就稻米的損失函數之估計而言，本研究嘗試以最小平方法（Ordinary Least Square，以下簡稱OLS）、Tobit 模型以及Truncated 模型來估計稻米的損失函數，由於颱風是造成稻米損失的主要天然災害，因此損失函數的解釋變數為颱風帶來之最大風速和累積雨量，由實証結果發現颱風所帶來最大風速對於台灣各地區的稻米皆有顯著的影響；至於雨量對中南部的稻米單位面積之損失較北部與東部地區的影響小。接著，本研究利用純保費法來計算稻作實施天然災害保險的保費費率，以每公頃十萬元的保險金額而言，每公頃的保費費率為0.166%至4.178%之間，因此每公頃的純保險費用約75 至3,400 元。

The purposes of this study are to estimate rice damage functions bytyphoon using econometric toll and the premium calculation of disasterinsurance in Taiwan. To estimate rice damage functions by typhoon,OLS, Tobit, and Truncated Models are applied. The empirical resultsshow that there is a positive significant impact of wind speed on rice.However, the impacts of rainfall by typhoon in the central and southernareas are much smaller in the areas of the northern and eastern. Finally,the estimation of rice damage functions is applied to calculate thepremium. Basic on $NT 100, 000 of rice production cost per hectare asinsurance coverage, the premium is ranged from 0.166% to 4.178%which is about $NT 75 to 3,400 per hectare of insurance cost if thedisaster insurance is implemented.