台灣稻米政策調整對稻米市場經濟影響之評估

The Economics Impacts of Rice Policy Adjustment on Its Market in Taiwan

本研究之主要目的在於建立一包含保價收購制度、水旱田休耕政策以及關稅配額的進口貿易方式等三種稻米政策之經濟模型，透過此經濟模型的建立可模擬各種稻米政策調整之經濟影響。實証結果顯示，若政府的政策目標是在提高農民所得時，可以調高休耕補貼的方式進行調整，當休耕補貼金額增加10%時，稻米產地價格及農民種植水稻所得將會分別增加約5%及4%。另外實証結果也發現當配額外高關稅降低至每公斤加價22.5 元（或關稅率為205%）時，將會有超過配額量的國外稻米進口至國內市場。最後若在以符合WTO 規範為前提下，以同時變動保價收購政策及休耕補貼政策進行模擬時，可發現若政府的目標在於提高稻農所得而不增加政府的支出時，則減少50%收購量及提高30%休耕補貼金額之模擬方案將會是個最佳的選擇，因其保價收購政策支出減少幅度達57%，且政府支出也維持在未調整前之水準，但農民所得則明顯的提升，如種植水稻每公頃所得將增加約4,000 元，但是休耕所釋出之龐大農地應如何利用將是一項難題。

The purpose of this study is to develop an economic model thatincludes Government Rice Purchasing, Set-Aside, and TRQ policies.Alternative rice policies are simulated through this model. Empiricalresults show that the subsidy increasing in Set-Aside program couldsignificant improve farmers’ income. For example, the 10% increasingin Set-Aside subsidy will result a 4% increasing in farmers’ income. Onthe simulation of TRQ, we found that the import volume exceeds thequota as the price mark-up is reduced to at 22.5 $NT/kg(or Out-quotatariff rate is cut to 205%). Finally, Government Purchasing and Set-Aside programs could be simultaneous simulated under the regulation ofWTO. The best policy for improving farmers’ income without increasinggovernment budget is to cut 50% off on quantity purchasing with 30%increasing in Set-Aside subsidy.