環境因子對櫻花鉤吻鮭族群動態的影響

The Impacts of Environmental Factors on the Population Dynamics of the Formosan Landlocked Salmon

本文討論環境因子對櫻花鉤吻鮭族群的影響，實證結果顯示，氣溫、颱風在過去十五年對櫻花鉤吻鮭族群存在負面的效果。族群模擬方面，顯示在未納入環境因子時，櫻花鉤吻鮭族群的成長率在長期將趨近一穩定值；一旦納入環境因子的影響，櫻花鉤吻鮭族群在未來可能將面臨負成長，甚至滅絕。

The impacts that environmental factors brought to the population ofthe Formosan landlocked salmon are discussed in this paper and theevidence results indicate that the air temperature and typhoon havetaken negative effect during past 15 years. Under the populationsimulations, without considering the environmental factors, it is clear thatthe population growth rate tends towards a steady state in the long run.On the contrary, the population would be in decline or suffer theextermination while we consider those factors.