台灣非常時期糧食安全之分析

An Analysis of Food Security in the Emergency Period in Taiwan

台灣為主要糧食進口國，在面臨國際糧食取得性之疑慮，以及外交與全球區域安全之壓力，糧食安全議題至關重要。本研究以數學規劃法，探討在現行作物生產與民眾營養消費之相關限制條件下，若發生無法由國外進口糧食之緊急狀況，台灣現有之耕地要如何進行作物種植之配置，才能達到糧食熱量極大化之供應目標。本研究進一步以敏感度分析，了解總耕地面積、蔬菜複種指數，蛋白質產生熱量占總熱量比例限制對於最適解之影響。根據本研究結果顯示，若發生無法由國外進口糧食之緊急情況時，台灣目前現有80.8 萬公頃之耕地面積，能提供民眾平均每人每日2,086 大卡之熱量需求，以及蛋白質消費熱量占總消費熱量比例12% 之營養需求。隨著耕地面積的下降，熱量之供給隨之減少，當耕地面積小於76.5 萬公頃後，台灣就無法提供滿足民眾平均每人每日2,000 大卡之熱量需求。然而，本研究建立在當前休棄耕地之平均生產力，與目前有耕作之耕地生產力相同之假設前提下，若生產力相當之耕地面積低於76.5萬公頃，將可能會出現無法滿足國人糧食需求之情況。因此，政府應定期檢視農地利用狀況，並針對檢視結果提出因應對策，以維持耕地妥適之經營狀況與生產力。

Taiwan is a net food-importing country. Concern of food availability,pressure of current diplomacy status, and regional security, food securitybecomes one of the most important issues in Taiwan. This study appliesmathematical programming to study the allocation of farm land resources inTaiwan under emergency conditions for the achievement of food intakecalories maximization while import food from abroad is impossible.Sensitivity analysis is also applied to analyze how overall changes in totalcultivation area, changes in vegetable multiple cropping indexes, andchanges in the proportion of PFC constraints affect the optimal solution.The results show that under emergency conditions, the current cultivationarea of 808,000 hectares would be able to provide an estimated daily totalfood calorie of 2,086 kcal per person, with 12% of total calories generatedfrom protein. If the total cultivation area falls below 765,000 hectares, itwould be impossible to meet the daily food calories needs of 2,000 kcal perperson. Our research is based on the assumption that the productivity offallow and abandoned land is equal to the productivity of areas undercultivation. Therefore, if the total amount of fertile farm land is lower than765,000 hectares, it may not be possible to meet national food calorie needs.For this reason, the government should regularly examine usage conditionsof farm land resources and implement coping measures based on the resultsof these examinations in order to maintain proper management andproductivity of farm land.