我國入會後農產品貿易救濟產業損害之模擬分析－－以紅豆產業為例

Simulation Analysis of Trade Remedy Measures on Injury of Taiwan’s Agricultural Industry after Accession to WTO-- A Case Study of Adzuki Beans Industry

臺灣屬小農體制的國家，長期以來農業部門都是受政府保護性政策如高關稅、關稅配額及補貼政策等所維護。在加入WTO 後，我國必須履行WTO 協商之承諾，調降各類產品之進口關稅，取消各類進口管制、削減境內補貼等貿易保護措施，而農產品更是協商削減之主要對象。國內農產品在未來勢必面對低價進口品的衝擊影響，如何在短時間內快速評估產業損失，值得相關政府單位多加重視。本研究運用美國國際貿易委員會所發展的商業政策分析系統（Commercial Policy Analysis System，以下簡稱COMPAS 模型）進行農產品產業損害認定之分析，探討特定農產品（紅豆為例）若取消適用關稅配額政策或特別防衛措施（Special Safeguard，以下簡稱SSG）時，對產業所帶來的衝擊影響。臺灣目前並無農產品貿易救濟案例，而我國為避免國外農產品大量進口，影響我農民權益，故本研究以紅豆於實施關稅配額及特別防衛進口制度作為研究對象，並蒐集其產業及國內市場狀況之相關資料，加以研析，利用COMPAS 模型預測在取消相關保護措施後所可能帶來之衝擊影響，結果發現一旦政府相關保護措施的取消，紅豆之價格、產出帶來大幅度的負面影響，本研究結果可提供我國目前正在實施之23 項關稅配額，其中更有15 項可以實施特別防衛措施之產品推估其成本與收益及損害衡量之參考指標，作為政府部門事先預為輔導開放及彌補損害之依據。

Taiwan is a nation of small farming system, and for a long time theagriculture sector has been protected by the government’s protectivepolicies such as high customs duties, quotas, and subsidies. After joiningWTO, however, our nation must commit to the terms specified by WTO,including lowering duties for imported products, lifting import restrictions,and reducing subsidies which are primarily focused on agriculturalproducts. Taiwan’s agricultural products will meet the impacts fromcheaper imports in the future, and the authority needs to determine a wayto quickly assess the industrial losses within a very short period of time.In this study, we use the Commerce Policy Analysis System (or“COMPAS” for short) developed by the International Trade Commissionof the U.S. to assess the industrial losses seen in agricultural productsand the impact on the industry if the needed tariff quota policies or SSG(Special Safeguard) for certain agricultural products (such as adzukibeans) are lifted. Taiwan currently does not yet have any trade remedy cases ofagricultural products. In order to prevent Taiwan’s farmers from beingaffected by massive imported agricultural products, tariff quota and SSGon adzuki beans are selected as the research subject. We have alsocollected the related data on this industry and Taiwan’s market for furtheranalysis. COMPAS was used to estimate the possible impacts once theprotective measures are lifted, and we have determined that once thegovernment lifts the relevant measures, there will be drastic, negativeinfluences on adzuki beans price and output. The results of our studyserve as references for the 23 tariff quotas that Taiwan is practicing, and15 of them can serve as the references for determining the cost, benefits,and loses of products under SSG, allowing the government to provideneeded support and compensations for the possible losses in advance.