臺灣農家之農業所得的空間依存性分析

Spatial Analysis of the Farm Household Income in Taiwan

長期以來，農業政策之實行往往以促進農業所得為目的。過去的農業政策亦習以全區域之觀點來規劃，此作法並未考量農業所得的地區空間效應。本研究利用2005 年農林漁牧普查的農牧戶村里檔之原始資料，利用全域型Moran’s I 指標檢測法以及地區型LISA 分析法，檢視臺灣農家的農業所得是否存有空間聚集性，及其空間聚集之地理區位。此外，本文估計空間落遲（Spatial Lag）、空間誤差（Spatial Error）之空間計量模型，分析臺灣農業所得空間相依度。研究結果發現，台灣農業所得的確存在空間落遲性，不同村里間的農業所得會互相影響。此一結果顯示，傳統上以忽略空間相依性之分析方式，會導致探討影響農業所得的分析結果產生偏誤。

It is generally agreed that the primary purpose of the agriculturalpolicy is to promote farm household income. A growing body of literaturehad addressed this issue, however, most of the studies were based onthe aggregated data. To fill the knowledge gap, this paper utilizesMoran's I index and LISA method to empirically test the spatialdependency of the farm household income in Taiwan using the townshipdata drawn from the 2005 Agriculture Census survey. A spatial lag and aspatial error econometric models are also estimated. Results indicate thatfarm household income is spatially correlated. Ignoring the spatial natureof the farm household income will lead to potential bias of the policyinference.