興建蘇花國道對區域觀光效益之影響分析

An Assessment on the Regional Tourism Economic Effects of the Su-Hwa Highway Transportation Plan

運輸建設可帶動區域發展，惟運輸建設亦同時改變各區域發展之核心、腹地（Core-Periphery）關係。行政院經建會（2002）研擬「挑戰2008 國家發展重點計畫」，研議興建蘇花國道，藉以達成「平衡區域發展」與「觀光客倍增」等多重目標。本文主要沿用Liew 與Liew（1985）多區域變動係數投入產出（MRVIO）模型為分析工具，探討若蘇花國道通車後，針對花蓮地區可能產生之觀光效益進行評估。交通建設往往影響建設沿線人口與產業聚集，本文延續馮正民與林楨家（1992）之勞動市場整合模式，進一步預測花蓮地區之人口遷徙效果。研究發現觀光產業之效益，考慮人口增加與消費影響效果後，對花蓮本地之影響雖大，但大部分效果則外溢至台北、高雄等核心城市，北部區域反而產生強者恆強的磁吸效應，總效果以北部地區最大，花蓮次之。

Economic development process, many countries witnessed Urban-Rural problem. Because the constraint of geography factors, easternTaiwan development pattern were different from western Taiwan. TheExecutive Yuan(2002) have planned to build Su-Hwa Highway, toachieve multiple goals of balance regional development, doubling touristarrivals and Island-wide trunk transportation construction. Transportationis an key factor of regional development. This research try to applyLiew and Liew(1985) Multiregional Variable Input-Output Model, in orderto assess economic,tourism and environment impact. This researchfound after Su-Hwa Highway Operation,because of the transaction costsaving effect, Hualien district will have the most toutism economic growthbenefit.