Web2.0科技投資競合策略之研究──運用賽局選擇權理論的新思維

Strategy Web 2.0 Technology　Investments – a New Thinking by　Applying Game Theory and Real Option　Approach

自1990年代Tim Berners-Lee提出HTML與HTTP傳輸協定以來，網際網路已然成長為自由競爭的藍海，在Web2.0科技的推波助瀾之下，使用者可以主動提供有用的資訊，透過網路分享和參與的架構所驅動的長尾效應聚集人氣，企業憑藉網站累積廣大的消費者利基之後，就能賺取後續的廣告及行銷收入，甚至提供收費的服務來獲得更多的利益。本研究採納實質選擇權的思維，取代傳統的投資評價方法，將Web2.0科技投資的專案視為一種實質選擇權，並將後續策略應用的權利視為選擇權的連結標的，結合賽局理論探討市場先佔優勢及品牌領導優勢，從策略投資的角度切入，探討Web2.0科技投資策略的競合分析，並模擬Google與Yahoo瓜分搜尋引擎市場的科技投資競賽，用以了解在網路消費者市場需求不確定性、新科技發展不確定性及競爭對手回應的不確定性下，企業如何利用Web2.0科技制定其創新策略。

Since the 1990s, Tim Berners-Lee proposed the HTML and HTTP Transmission Protocol; the Internet has grown into the blue sea of free competition. Because of vigorous development in Web2.0 technology, user can share information actively and can simply gather the power of community by the long-tail by participating in the Internet. After gaining popularity of the web consumers, enterprise can make the follow-up advertising or provide fee-based services to get more benefits. This paper adopts the theory of real options to replace the traditional investment theory (NPV) by regarding Web2.0 technology investment as option for enterprise, so that all the follow-up strategies become controllable options for enterprise. Also, in order to model the first move advantage and the power of brand leadership in market, we combined game theory to add in the thinking of competition. Finally, we design an investment game of Web2.0 technology by simulating the competition in search engine technology between Google and Yahoo to perform how the uncertainty affects expected revenues of investment and to perform how enterprises make an innovation strategy with real option approach.