台灣農民長期生產力之前推研究──以效率工資為分析例證

The Productivity Estimation Focused on Efficiency Wage toward the Prospective Farmers in Taiwan

一甲子為跨代議題分析時頗佳的觀測期間，本文共分三階段做比較與前推研究，主要是藉由前推之估計結果，再檢視一甲子以來（1952至2012年），有薪給所得台灣農民的可比對生產效率表現。細言之，乃由1952至1992年之前兩階段投入與產出效率，做前向類推，經考量超長趨勢衡量必經的固定投入時差調整過程，與剔除期間的短期循環波動之後，首先，前推得1993至2012年之現今階段生產力趨勢表現。接著，將此前推所估得知數據資料，分別以美、日、以及國內之可比對官方發布資料，做驗證與評核之程序。本文發現在農村裏，面對趨勢應機得宜、有翻轉能力的前向型農民，愈可以形塑其內生整合型生產力促進模式；主要在其能夠在低迷的農戶所得中突圍而出，與獲得「提高生產力、不怕勞務所得高」之工作表現回饋。最後，本文提出「應機／知人／任人（含育人）」等新績效評估之用人哲學，供未來農業先行規劃營運之參酌。

The main objective of this paper is to construct the 1993-2012 forward estimation indexes and make the comparison of trans-generation efficient wage change from the 1952 through 2012. The trend indexes of the 60- year cohort study take into account the adjustment of the weighted partial productivity measures that the pervasive and chronic excess capacity exists in Taiwan’s agricultural sector. In addition, the current efficiency wage measures have assumed all heterogeneous inputs are not instantaneously adjustable, and thus consider the lag response of shortrun fixity of certain primary inputs (excluding the intermediate inputs). After controlling for the inheritable institution of 40-year efficiency wage, the extended forward estimation of the induced efficiency-income imputation is consistent with the documentary proof announced from the official farmer’s average income data, and the convergent growth case of Japan vs. USA vs. Taiwan also reexamines this type. Finally, our finding supports frontrunner employment project to conduct a turnaround against the negative farming performance evaluation, which generations of old activists have not fought to keep Taiwan’s input-output foundations free from unsteady paths.