製藥公司藥品許可證、研發與分析師盈餘預測關聯性之研究

Drug Permit License, Research and Development, and Analyst’s Earnings Forecasts: A Study of Pharmaceutical Firms

本研究調查 R&D（研究與發展）資本對創新產出（以藥品許可證件數衡量）的影響。本研究亦檢測是否藥品許可證會影響分析師盈餘預測的特性。再則，本研究檢測是否資訊透明度會影響藥品許可證與分析師預測特性之間的關聯性。本研究以 2003-2011 年之台灣上市製藥公司為研究對象，實證發現R&D 資本對藥品許可證有正向的影響性。本研究進一步發現公司有較多的藥品許可證件數時，分析師的盈餘預測精確度愈差且離散度愈大。最後，本研究證實公司有較高的資訊透明度，能改善高藥品許可證件數所產生之不精確與離散的分析師預測。

This study investigates the impact of R&D (research and development) capital on innovation output, as measured by the number of drug permit licenses. We also examine whether drug permit license affect the properties of analysts’ earnings forecasts. In addition, we examine whether information transparency affect the relation between drug permit license and analysts’ forecast properties. On the basis of a sample of listed Taiwanese pharmaceutical firms from 2003 to 2011, we find that R&D capital has a positive effect on drug permit license. We further find that firms with higher number of drug permit licenses are associated with less accurate and more dispersed analysts’earnings forecasts. Finally, we document that firms with higher level of information transparency can improve the analysts’ forecast inaccuracy and dispersion associated with higher number of drug permit licenses.