應用地理資訊系統分析毒品犯罪分佈特性之研究－－以新北市蘆洲區為例

Utilizing GIS into the Analysis of Taiwan Regional Distribution and Character of Drug-Related Crime : The Case Study of Luzho District of New Taipei City

毒品犯罪是全球各國皆存在的問題，而毒品交易則是第一個利用「全球化」謀取最大利潤的非法行業，犯罪分子從毒品交易中獲取暴利，許多恐怖主義團體則把毒品走私作為資金的重要來源，國際化與無國界時代更讓毒品犯罪問題更趨嚴重與氾濫。傳統犯罪區域性空間研究，大致上以統計數據表格、統計圖方式呈現，無法顯示犯罪地點與空間的相關性。
近年來資訊科技的發展、地理建構空間資料的累積，本研究藉由地理資訊系統（Geographic Information System, GIS）的犯罪製圖與空間分析（SpatialAnalysis）技術，結合新北市蘆洲區 2007 年至 2016 年毒品犯罪查獲案件紀錄，加以整合分析其犯罪熱區與分佈特性。將毒品查獲犯罪點以空間單元「里」進行地理分區毒品犯罪時空分佈特性，掌握毒品犯罪在不同時空的群聚、擴散、轉移等趨勢。
本研究採用平均最近鄰分析（Average Nearest Neighbor），找出毒品犯罪點是否呈現聚集現象，以進行犯罪熱點分析。再利用核密度推估法（KernelDensity Estimation）與空間自相關分析 Getis-Ord Gi*演算法，分析比較不同時段毒品犯罪案件分佈變化情形，找出毒品犯罪熱點的空間分佈，並繪製犯罪地圖研究，分析結果發現毒品犯罪確實有空間聚集之特性，且毒品犯罪熱點由東南往西、北移動之現象。
本研究利用犯罪製圖繪製呈現空間群聚相關分析與結論，提供警政機關研訂查緝毒品之策略參考建議，同時應用於基層警察勤務規劃與偵查佈署，提高勤務績效，以有效遏阻毒品犯罪者之意圖及澈底斷絕毒品供給之行為。

Drug-related crime is a global and transnational issue. Drug-related crime has caused great harm upon social security, economical development and human health. Most of the academic literature have proved the significant association between drug and crime. This research project aims to utilize GIS technology to analyze thematic mapping of drug-related crime by the combination of governmental big data information. The analysis will include temporal and spatial distribution and character as well as the focus on hotspot and the tendencies on proliferation and displacement.
This study profoundly developing academic theory and discourses through the literature of environmental criminology, geographical criminology, drugrelated crime and GIS for the further construction of thematic mapping. The systematical methods of Average Nearest Neighbor, Kernel Density Estimation and Getis-Ord GI* are used to the drug-related crime at Luzhou District of New Taipei City for the dimensions of temporal and spatial distribution and character as well as the focus on hot-spot and the tendencies on proliferation and displacement. It hopes to offer explicit perspectives and interpretations for the development of contemporary crime control and policing management by the provision of the construction of drug-related crime mapping.