自管理者過度自信觀點解釋IPOs長短期報酬異象

Explaining the Short- and Long-Run Performance of IPOs by Managerial Overconfidence

本研究探討管理者過度自信如何影響初次上市櫃公司股票（IPOs）的長短期異常報酬現象。研究結果發現，管理者過度自信與IPOs初始報酬呈現正向顯著關係，顯示過度自信管理者容易高估本身能力及公司未來展望，而願意提供投資人更高的發行折價，做為傳遞個人能力或公司品質訊號的手段。然而投資人對於IPOs股票的需求強度，會減緩過度自信管理者透過發行折價傳遞IPOs品質訊號的必要性，進而降低發行折價與初始報酬。此外IPOs長期股價績效則因管理者過度自信而表現更差，意謂管理者因過度自信所衍生的行為偏差，無法為公司制定最佳的政策，而傷害IPOs股票的長期績效。

This paper examines the effect of managerial overconfidence on the high initial return and poor long-run performance of IPOs. We find a positive relation between managerial overconfidence and initial return, implying that overconfident managers tend to signal the quality of their talent and firm by higher underpricing due to their overestimation of personal capabilities and firms' prospects. However, the investors' demand for the IPOs reduces the requirement of overconfident managers' signaling IPOs quality through underpricing. Finally, managerial overconfidence is negatively related to the IPOs long-run performance because of the adverse impact of managerial overconfidence in the long run.