企業資訊揭露、公司治理與財務危機預警之實證研究——以台灣上市上櫃電子業為例

Information Disclosure, Corporate Governance and Financial Distress Prediction Model - An Empirical Study of the Listed Electronic Companies in Taiwan

本研究以2008年至2015年間台灣上市上櫃電子產業為研究對象，選取上市櫃電子業的32家危機公司，另外選取同一產業指數且資產規模相近的32家正常公司，將危機公司與正常公司以1：1的比率配對。以財務比率、企業資訊揭露與公司治理為自變數，運用羅吉斯迴歸建立財務危機預警模型。
實證結果發現，財務危機發生前三年影響公司發生財務危機機率之指標變數有4個財務比率呈現顯著影響，其中每股盈餘、現金流量比率、營業利益率越高越不會發生財務危機。反之負債比率呈現正向影響，表示負債比率越高企業越可能發生危機。在公司治理方面，當公司更換會計師及董事長兼任總經理發生財務危機機率較高，所以當公司更換會計師或董事長兼任總經理，須注意是否可能有財務危機。企業資訊揭露的前一年及前兩年和企業發生財務危機呈顯著負向影響，因此企業若被評為「A++」、「A+」、「A」、「A-」以外的等級，須注意是否可能有財務危機。根據本研究之財務危機預警模式，危機預測正確率可達78.1%，表示羅吉斯迴歸模型可有效於事前預測台灣上市、上櫃電子業發生財務危機之機率，以作為主管機關、投資人投資及管理者決策與防範風險之參考。

The samples of this research are collected from TEJ with 32 crisis firms and 32 normal companies during 2008 to 2015. This empirical analysis is attempted to use the financial ratios, corporate government and the information disclosure, and this study uses Logistic regression model.
According to the Logistic regression results, the percentage of correct classification was as high as 78.1% for the Taiwan-listed and OTC electronics industry. The Empirical results show that four financial ratios affect significantly the occurrence of company’s financial distress including earnings per share, cash flow ratio, operating profit margin, and debt ratio. The study also demonstrates the predicting ability has increased significantly if the variables about corporate governance and information disclosure are included.