台灣壽險業投資外幣計價國際債券之風險評估

Risk Assessment of International Bond Investment in Taiwan Life Insurance Industry

2014年保險法第146條之4修正，增列保險業依保險法規定投資國內上市(櫃)買賣外幣計價股權或債券憑證投資金額不計入其國外投資限額。本研究探討此修正對台幣公債市場籌資影響並分析投資國際債券之贖回風險。
主要研究結果為(1)此修正後壽險業增加國外投資但減持公債。(2)壽險業對公債需求越低，國庫長天期籌資成本越高。並檢視國際債之投資迷思，高收益於利率走低時遭贖回風險抵銷。依2014至2016年債市資訊，本研究評估贖回風險為52.45bps。

The amendment of Article 146-4 of Insurance Act in 2014 extends the overseas investment ceiling that was not included to be counted in the overseas investment to the value for foreign currency denominated listed or over-the-counter certificates of domestic stocks or bonds that are invested in by insurance enterprises in accordance with the Insurance Act. This paper investigates the impact of funding in Taiwan government bond market, and analyzes the call risk of international bonds.
The results show that: (1) after the amendment of Article 146-4 of Insurance Act, the foreign investments increase, while the government bonds decrease in the asset portfolio of life insurance industry. (2) The lower the demands of government bond from the life insurers, the higher the funding cost of government. The high return puzzle of international bond is investigated. The high yield of callable international bond might be offset by the call risk. According to the bond market data between 2014 and 2016, the estimated cost of call risk is 52.45 bps.