金融與保險服務業貿易存續之穩定性：OECD國家之驗證

SURVIVAL AND DURATION OF STABILITY ON TRADE IN FINANCIAL AND INSURANCE SERVICES: EVIDENCE FROM OECD COUNTRIES

本研究主要目的為衡量全球金融危機前後的OECD國家金融與保險服務業貿易出口之穩定性，並分別了解各國別與洲別甚至是組織別面對金融危機所受到的衝擊。本研究針對已開發國家組織中的OECD成員國作為地主國，利用與對手國為全世界間之金融與保險服務業貿易出口金額流量，並考慮2008年全球金融危機的衝擊再利用存活分析方法判斷該事件對各國於觀察期間之金融與保險服務業貿易存續率的影響。首先，本研究發現希臘與大部分的歐洲國家有著不同的結果，該國無論金融或保險服務業貿易之存續穩定度皆為金融危機前比金融危機後穩定，驗證了希臘在金融與保險服務業貿易上的衝擊。其次，就所有地主國家之整體表現而言，金融與保險服務業貿易在存續期間的表現也極為相似，當兩產業服務業貿易之存續處在0.5以上時，金融服務業貿易於全球金融危機前後之存續期間分別為2.75年與3.8年，保險服務業貿易在GFC前後的存續期間表現則為2.71年與3.76年。因此，無論在全球金融危機前後金融服務業出口貿易相較於保險服務業出口貿易來的穩定。第三，大部分的歐洲國家在金融危機前的觀察期間中，無論金融或保險服務業貿易之存續率皆有急遽下滑的現象，而造成存續率如此不穩定的潛在原因有可能為近幾年之氣候異常所致。本研究首創以存活分析比較服務業貿易於國別、洲別及組織別之差異。再者，Log-Rank Test穩健性測試也被使用於OECD成員國之產業間與區域間之差異。

This study investigated the trade volume of the financial and insurance sectors between OECD members (from developed countries) as host countries and their partner countries worldwide. This study also considered the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) by employing survival analysis to determine the influence of this event on the survival rates of financial and insurance services in various countries within the observation period. The results indicated that Greece was different from most European nations: the duration of trade of its financial and insurance sectors was more stable before the GFC than after the GFC. This verified the impact of the event on the stability of trade in the financial and insurance services. Second, during the observation period before the GFC, the duration of trade in both the financial and insurance services of most European nations fell dramatically. The potential cause of this instability may have been the abnormal financial climate in recent years. Third, in terms of the performance of all host countries, the average duration of trade of the two industries was more stable after the GFC than before the GFC. However, the average duration of trade was more stable in financial services than in insurance services. Finally, this study also found that the survival rate is more stable in the partner countries of OECD members than those of non-OECD members.