中國大陸政經制度類型與習近平的制度趨向分析

The Current Political and Economic Realities in China and Xi Jinping's the Influence

中國近40年改革，已面臨轉型問題，其主要爭議在於左右之爭。中共中央對於未來制度轉型的具體原則迄未形成定見，而大陸左右各派觀點分歧極大，亦均提出某種屬於意識形態性質的未來制度選擇之偏好傾向，意欲影響中央未來政策轉變。本文即就上述背景，對中國政經制度未來發展，進行探討與分析。本文的分析架構，係採用類型分類的方法，從「政治」與「經濟」兩種制度面向，以及「左派」與「右派」兩種意識形態傾向，演繹為四種模型，探討中國未來制度轉變的意義及可能選擇方向的觀察。同時，亦在於對中國改革開放多年後，做一個初步的評價與反思。本文進行分析的四種類型，包括廣東模式、重慶模式、中央政策模式，以及第三條道路。制度的分析與探討，有利於發現中國當前所存在的諸多問題，並獲知可能的發展趨向。至於中國未來的制度究竟如何發展，無可避免的將涉及本論題之外的諸多其他因素。本文僅就論述範圍，進行分析探討。

This paper will outline and analyze the development of policies and politics of China and how this has affected the economy of China, and also the possible direction that the Chinese government may take in the future. In order to establish an analytical framework this paper will use two systems of ＂politics＂ and ＂economy＂ and two ideologies of the ＂Left＂ and ＂Right＂ by incorporating four models. These are the Guangdong Model, the Chongqing Model, the CPC Central Committee Policy Model, and the Third Way Model. This paper also looks at the in-depth Interview of Xi Jinping and how he is likely to shape China's political and economic future. This interview indicates, as most experts agree, that Xi Jinping will generally maintain the same policies of ＂Politics Left, Economics Right＂ that has so far guided China's recent policies, but that he will also move towards a more centralized form of government in order to maintain and consolidate his political power. This analysis is important because it may reveal and explain the economic and social problems China is currently facing and how Xi Jinping will face and try to resolve these problems.