東漢長期通貨膨脹－－兼論「中古自然經濟」的形成

Long-term Inflation in the Eastern Han Dynasty: An Analysis Based on Archeological Evidence

往昔研究認為，東漢執政者對貨幣鑄造態度消極，黃金與法定貨幣五銖等金屬鑄幣流通漸減，實物貨幣的使用逐漸增加。魏晉南北朝延續此一趨勢，於是而有中古自然經 濟的形成。本文根據考古資料整理分析東漢貨幣制度演變，從而提出新的觀點，認為這是東漢長期通貨膨脹最後階段的貨幣崩潰，造成經濟全面蕭條的必然結果。根據出土錢幣資料分析，東漢二百年中銅錢持續減重，以及貨幣數量持續增加，顯示存在長期上升的通貨膨脹趨勢，而非如昔所論實物貨幣的加強。本文指出，東漢前、中期延續秦代和西漢政府對鑄幣的壟斷，以及「行錢」等制度，導致東漢長期通貨膨脹。東漢後期桓帝永壽、延熹之際，原為解決通膨問題所形成的「寬鍥薄之禁」（暫緩對刮削錢幣銅屑的禁令）政策，反而造成行錢法律負面效應的放大，使得東漢前、中期的緩和性通膨，迅速轉變為後期的急速性通膨（桓帝延熹年間起「剪輪錢」戲劇性大量 出現可證）。其後靈帝四出文錢與董卓鑄小錢，造成漢末更嚴重的惡性膨脹，最終並導致貨幣的全面崩潰。貨幣經濟於斯結束，物物交換經濟開始。東漢幣制雖終結於靈帝與董卓，但論其始源，則在「行錢」與「寬禁」政策開展之時，其結構便已內含後續變化的關鍵因子。

The basic argument of this paper is that the unusual form of natural economy (i.e. trading without money) in China during the 3rd-6th centuries was an inevitable outcome of the collapse of the monetary system in the Eastern Han Dynasty (1st-3rd centuries). This collapse was mainly caused by long-term inflation, and extensive archeological evidence is used here to corroborate this contention. There were two institutional shortcomings which caused this monetary breakdown. First, monopoly of coinage encouraged the government to over-issue currency during the Eastern Han in order to increase seignorage profit. Second, the inappropriate “Money Circulation Law” allowed bad money to circulate, driving out good money in accordance with Gresham’s Law.