沒有房子不生孩子？買了房子不敢生孩子？購屋對家戶婚後生育時間影響之研究

“No House No Children?” “Dare not Have Children after Buying a House?” The Links of House Buying on Household Fertility Behavior

現今高房價與低生育的社會現象是巧合，抑或高房價是導致低生育率的另一社會問題？在報章媒體常見的「沒有房子不生孩子？」及「買了房子不敢生孩子？」標題引起本文研究動機。本文從成本觀點探討購屋對家戶生育行為影響的可能途徑，運用華人家庭動態資料庫針對1934-1984年出生之受訪者個體資料，建立生育行為存活模型進行分析。實證結果為生育前購屋家戶相較未購屋者，有較長的婚後至生育的時間，且於房價景氣高漲時期購屋，將使婚後至生育時間更為延長。說明在房價高漲時期購屋，將占據更多的家庭資源，使房子對孩子的排擠效果更為強烈，進而降低生育事件的發生率，而有「買了房子不敢生孩子」的現象。對於未購屋家戶而言，在外租屋除需負擔居住成本租金外，也降低獲取家庭代間資源的可及性，婚後生育時間相較於與原生家庭同住家戶長；當將房子視為生育的前提要件時，便產生「沒有房子不生孩子」的情形。建議政府有關單位應積極解決高房價問題，控制因高房價時期購屋導致家戶生育時間的過度延遲，以避免進入超低生育率陷阱。

From the perspective of costs, this study discussed the possible consequences of household purchase brought to fertility behavior. The Panel Study of Family Dynamics surveyed was used to establish the fertility behavior survival model. The results indicate that purchasing houses at soaring prices will take up more household resources causing a stronger crowding-out effect of houses on children, and thereby reducing the occurrence rate of fertility leading to the phenomenon of “dare not have children after buying a house”. On the other hand, when considering houses as the precondition factor of child-bearing, the situation of “no house no children” will occur. This study recommends that the relevant government units should actively address the problem of high housing prices and control the unreasonable delay in household fertility periods due to house purchase during high housing price periods in order to avoid falling into the low fertility trap.