情境分析法應用於醫院經營及管理策略之探討

The Application of the Scenario Analysis Approach for the Hospital Operation and Management Strategy

愈來愈多的企業使用情境分析法（Scenario Analysis Method）來處理變動的競爭性環境，也已有許多的證據及文獻說明了情境分析法對企業營運的影響，但在醫療產業卻很少見。醫院環境在過去二十年有著非常劇烈的改變，醫院管理者現今必須處理一些動態的法規、政策、市場、品質及成本等環境變數，本研究試圖借鏡一些其它成功的產業所引用的方法提出對醫務管理策略的建議。因此本研究使用情境分析法來分析醫院所面臨的產業環境，依據資深醫管專家的意見從不同等級的醫院，共提出了十二種經營影響變數及九種情境，並一一針對每種情境提出一些較宏觀的策略建議，希望能對各級醫院管理者在面臨未來醫療環境動盪的同時，提供一些參考的依據。

More and more enterprises have been using scenario analysis to deal with the changes of competitive environment. Many research evidences have demonstrated the effect of scenario analysis on the business operation. However, few literatures relatively mention the application of scenario analysis to the hospital operation. The healthcare environment have changed dramatically over the past two decades, especially in Taiwan in which hospital superintendents currently have to deal with the severe changes of environment variables such as regulations, policies, market, quality and costs. By scenario analysis, this study aims at dealing with the dynamic business environment that many hospitals are facining. According to the opinions of senior experts of hospital management, this study identified 12 important environmental variables and 9 critical scenarios for the hospitals of different level. Detailed and operational strategies are proposed for each scenario in order to provide useful information for the management of healthcare industry in Taiwan.