2014 年の中台関係－－制度的関係の確立と矛盾の表出

回顧2014 年兩岸關係－－兩岸互動機制的推進和衝突與矛盾的爆發（A Review of the Cross-Strait Relations in 2014 ― The Progression of Bilateral Interaction Mechanism and Eruption of Political Conflict and Paradox）

2014 年兩岸實現史上首次兩岸事務首長會議，建立官方常態性聯繫溝通管道，並推進兩岸關係制度化。此時台灣社會內部，也逐漸擴大對兩岸跨入深水區的疑慮，以及對分配失衡（尤其兩岸經濟紅利）的不滿，3 月爆發太陽花學運，衝擊到兩岸關係。學運使兩岸之間的根本矛盾──台灣的民主，和大陸對台灣希望套用一國兩制的最終目標－－浮現檯面，兩岸關係急速陷入低潮。眾人矚目的馬習會破局，九合一選舉國民黨潰敗，馬政府還剩一年以上的任期，被形容提前進入跛腳狀態。台灣方面評估，經過北京APEC 蕭習會後，兩岸已經回到軌道上，但客觀來看，經過2014 的動盪，兩岸在持續處於低迷狀態，走進2015。大陸方面應該仍有意將兩岸關係推進到深水區，但何時推出超越胡六點的新方針，評估2016 應是最可能的時間點。

Taiwan and China made a groundbreaking engagement in 2014 through the meeting between Wang Yu-chi, Minister of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, and Zhang Zhijun, Director of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office. Both had agreed on establishing a direct and regular communication channel between the two agencies to facilitate the institutionalization of bilateral relations. However, the deepening development of bilateral ties had made Taiwanese people suspicious of further political engagement and economic integration with China. The Sunflower Movement that broke out in March 2014 had severely dampened the Cross-Strait relations, which subsequently dropped to the lowest point in recent years with the failure of a planned landmark meeting between President Ma Ying-jeou and Chinese President Xi Jinping （Ma-Xi meeting） as well as a humiliating setback in the 9-in-1 elections in November for the KMT government. With more than one year left in his current term, Ma has already been described as a lame-duck president. The Ma administration believed that the Cross-Strait relations are now back on track after a rocky year. However, Beijing may continue to push forward with this political agenda and the year of 2016 would be a better timing for Xi to set the tone for his Taiwan policy.