建構我國私立技專院校財務困境觀測表之研究

A Study on Constructing Financial Distress Watch List of Private Science-technological University and College in Taiwan

我國私立大專院校民國105年將面對更大的少子化壓力，本文創設「現金能量」 概念，並以此設計常態現金結餘、現金償債能力、可用借款額度等財務指標與一 年級學生數、全校學生數、平均每班學生數等非財務指標，建構財務困境觀測表， 用以評估可能產生財務困境之學校。以我國73所私立技專院校為研究對象，蒐集 上開學校95至102學年財務報表，96至103學年度學生數，計算各校指標數據。採 財務報表個案分析技術中的長期趨勢分析法及調查研究法進行研究。研究發現當 三項財務指標均為赤字與三項非財務指標均出現異常值時，該學校於一至三年内 會面臨停辦命運。本研究歸納五項有關學校停辦特性之結論，並提出五項建議， 如教育主管機關依據本研究設計之財務困境觀測表，對二千人以下學校，每年編 列各校財務困境觀測表予以觀察監督。

Private university and college will face greater pressure of low birth rate in 2016 in Taiwan. This article create the conception of cash capacity and design the financial distress watch list with the indicators of normal cash flow， cash liquidity， the amount of available borrowings， the number of students of the first grade， the number of students， and average number of students per class. The subject of the study were all private science-technological university and college in Taiwan. We collect financial statements of 2006-2013 academy-year， the number of students from 2007 academy-year to 2014. The study employ the long-term tendency analysis method of financial statement analysis techniques and survey research. The study found that when the three financial indicators are the deficit and the three non-financial indicators are outliers， the school would face a shut down destiny within 3 years. This study summarized five conclusions regarding characteristics of the shut down schools. In additional， the author suggested educational authorities should edit financial distress watch list every year for the schools that student number below 2，000 persons， so that government could inspect the school under financial distress.