績效表現與薪資報酬以美國職棒大聯盟季後賽資格為例

Performance and Compensation: Evidence from Postseason Participation in Major League Baseball

本文旨在實證探討美國職棒大聯盟 (Major League Baseball, MLB) 球隊進入季後賽 (postseason playoffs) 之影響因素，我們以1985 - 2013 年MLB 球隊資料為研究對象，並應用動態追蹤資料雙元選擇模型 (dynamic panelbinary choice model) 進行估計。主要的研究結果指出：各球隊所支付的薪資總額對其是否能夠進入季後賽具有顯著的影響力，其中不同球隊之間的薪資總額差異 (inter-team payroll disparity)，相較於同一球隊內球員間的薪資差異 (intra-team salary disparity)，對於球隊能否進入季後賽具有更強而顯著的影響效果。本文亦檢視MLB 球隊進入季後賽是否有延續現象 (persistency)，我們發現球隊在本年度能否進入季後賽的機率，並不受該球隊前一年度是否進入季後賽之影響。

This study applies a dynamic panel estimation approach to analyze postseason playoff participation in Major League Baseball (MLB) based on 1985-2013 MLB seasonal data. Our findings suggest that a team's payroll exhibits an important role in predicting playoff participation. Inter-team payroll disparity has a stronger effect than intra-team salary disparity on increasing the chance of entering the playoffs. We also examine whether there is any persistency of postseason playoffs in MLB, finding that the chance of entering the playoffs in a current season does not depend on a team's winning status in the previous season.