臺灣地區服務業部門能源消費與二氧化碳排放關聯分析

Relational Analysis between Energy Consumption and CO2 Emission of Service Sector in Taiwan

本研究目的，探討台灣地區服務業部門1982~2008年能源消費、二氧化碳排放變動關聯分析及之影響因素。首先利用因素分析迪氏指標法，探討影響其排放變動之關鍵因素，最後並利用脫鉤指標分析服務業部門能源消費、二氧化碳排放與GDP互動效應。迪式指標分析研究結果顯示，主要影響二氧化碳排放增量的因素為生產總值和排放係數為主要增量因素，其中以生產總值成長影響最大，其次是為排放係數，能源密集度則是唯一減量因素。OECD脫鉤指標分析顯示，能源消費量與GDP、二氧化碳排放量與GDP之狀態方面，近年來皆為相對脫鉤指標，顯示歷年來脫鉤狀態是呈現良好狀態。Tapio脫鉤指標方面，能源消費量與GDP、二氧化碳指放量與GDP之狀態方面，是呈現弱脫鉤狀態，以圖中標準偏差圓來看，整體數值大多位於標準偏差圓外，顯示大部份數質皆大於標準偏差值，可知需要改善之部份仍佔大部份，顯示服務業部門歷年來能源消費與二氧化碳脫鉤指標值成效不佳。綜合上述，我國服務業部門之能源消費及二氧化碳排放量目前仍有急遽上升之趨勢，應積極推動二氧化碳減量措施及相關執行方法，服務業部門二氧化碳主要排放方面是為電力消費部份本研究建議應實行節約能源並提升能源效率的效果，因此未來服務業部門邁向永續發展與二氧化碳減量之方針，優先針對因電力消費所產生二氧化碳排放部份加以改善，其改善效果應有相當的成效。

The aim of the study is to discuss the trend and relation analysis of energy consumption and carbon emission in Service Sector in Taiwan during 1982~2008 and their influence factors. First of all, Factor Analysis Divisia index is applied to find out the key factors that influence the emission trend. Finally, Decoupling Indicators are used to analyze the interaction between energy consumption, carbon emission and GDP in Service Sector. The outcome of Divisia index shows that the main factors that influence the increase in carbon emission are GDP and emission factor. The influence of GDP growth is the most significant followed by emission factor. Energy Intensity is the only decreasing factor. OECD Decoupling Indicator analysis shows that in terms of energy consumption vs. GDP and carbon emission vs. GDP, they are relative decoupling indicators during the last few years. It shows that the decoupling pattern is very good for the past years. Tapio Decoupling Indicator shows that in terms of energy consumption vs. GDP and carbon emission vs. GDP, they indicate a weak decoupling pattern. Looking at the Standard Deviation Pie, most of the values are outside of the Standard Deviation Pie which means most of values are larger than the standard deviation. There are still rooms for improvement for most of the values which indicate the effect of decoupling indicators for energy consumption and carbon emission is not very good. In view of the above, the energy consumption and carbon emission of Service Sector in Taiwan show an accelerating trend. Carbon emission decreasing measures and relative executive means should be aggressively promoted. The main carbon emission factor is electricity consumption. It is suggested to carry out energy conservation and increase energy efficiency. Therefore future Service Sector should be focused on sustainable development and carbon decreasing. The priority is to decrease the carbon emission due to electricity consumption. The improvement outcome should be an ideal effect.