臺灣地區鋼鐵業CO[feaf]排放變動效果因素分析——投入產出結構分析法之應用

Assessment and Analysis of CO2 Reduction for Steel Industry in Taiwan-An Application of Input-Output Structural Decomposition Method

本研究首先以迪式指數法將鋼鐵業於1981至2001年之CO2排放增量組成因素分解為排放係數、能源配比、總能源密集度及生產總值四項因素，結果顯示鋼鐵業於1981至2001年期間CO2增加12.17百萬公噸，其中以鋼鐵業之生產總值為關鍵之主要增量因素，為探討鋼鐵業生產總值的增量結構效果，本研究進一步以投入產出結構因素分析法將鋼鐵業生產總值的增量因素分解為產業中間投入國產率變化、鋼鐵業向前關聯效應、國內最終需求成長及出口成長等四項因素。研究結果顯示，鋼鐵業出口成長及國內最終需求成長為CO2排放量增加的最主要因素，鋼鐵業向前關聯效應則無明顯減量效果，而產業中間投入國產率因素效果並不顯著。就各項能源的CO2排放而言，以電力使用的CO2排放量增量效應最高，其次為煤品及油品亦具有增量效果。整體而言，鋼鐵業為典型的高耗能、高CO2排放產業，建議未來鋼鐵業應要加強研發能力，並引進電弧煉鋼新製程，以達到節約能源及降低污染的目標。此外，還需持續改善能源密集度，以提高產品附加價值，減少CO2排放量及相關能源污染物，促進鋼鐵業的發展。

The increment of steel industrial CO2 emission in 1981 to 2001 can be decomposed into four factors by using Divisia Index analysis: (1) the CO2 emission factor, (2) the industrial energy allocation (coefficient), (3) total energy intensity and (4) total production value. According the result of this study, the amount of CO2 emission increased 12.17 million tons during 1981 through 2001, it shows that the increment is caused by total production value mainly. Further, this study utilizes input-output (I-O) structural decomposition analysis to decompose total production value factor. Preliminary result shows that the change of domestic final demand and the export growth are primary factors of CO2 emission increment. In general, steel industry is classic high energy consumption and high CO2 emission sector. It is recommended that steel industry should keep improving research and development capability and employ Arc Steel-making process to reduce energy consumption and CO2 emission.