日治臺灣製造業的產業成長肇因與特色－－兼論日治臺灣工業政策的績效

The Cause of Industrial Growth of Taiwan Manufacturing under Japan Rule, and an Assessment of the Performance of Industrial Policy.

本文旨在確認日治臺灣製造業的產業成長肇因與特色，並進而嘗試評估臺灣總督府所採用工業政策的績效。本文發現，出口是日治臺灣製造業唯一的產業成長肇因，但勞動投入對該產業的成長沒有貢獻。本文發現，臺灣總督府確有達成吸引日本資本來臺的政策目標，但這些來臺的日本資本並沒有促進台灣製造業產業成長的績效，因臺灣製糖業確有投資過多的情況及其他原因，致使資本投入的邊際產量處於非正值的階段。再者，就逐年實際的績效而言，臺灣總督府並沒有完成滿足日本國內對糖需求的任務。最後，本文發現，日本「南進國策」不但造成臺灣製造業的產業成長率為負值，而且，主要因二戰末的美機猛烈轟炸，臺灣總督府所建最重要的糖廠與日月潭水力發電廠之生產力幾乎歸零。

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is first to identify the cause of industrial growth of Taiwan manufacturing under Japan rule, and then to assess the performance of industrial policy. It is found that export is the only cause of industrial growth, but labor is not a contributor. In addition, Japanese Governors – General of Taiwan have sucessfully achieved the goal to induce the investment from Japan, but that investment does not contribute to Taiwan economic growth since the marginal product of capital is non-positive, as verified by this paper. It is found also that Japanese “Go-south National Development Plan” has two significant impacts on Taiwan industry, one is the growth rate of Taiwan manufaturing is negative, and the other impact is worse, that is, mainly because of Allies’ heavy air-raid during last months of Pacific war, sugar plants and Sun-moon Lake hydroelectric power plants, two main and vital kinds of plants bulit under Japan rule, losed almost all productivity for Taiwan economy after World War II.