不確定性下的企業反應能力與績效之關連性

Differential Responsiveness and Corporate Performance under Uncertainty

心理學及生物學的研究指出每個人識別環境改變的反應能力 (responsiveness) 不同。將此種反應能力延伸至企業層面，本研究認為此種能力與企業在不確定性下的決策與其後續績效攸關。本研究基於經濟、財務、及決策分析等文獻，以公司在面對不確定性環境下是否採取高代價的預防行動來衡量公司的反應力高低。實證研究以美國上市公司為對象，並以會計獲利能力與投資敏感度為績效衡量指標。實證結果顯示：1. 警覺性高的公司比未曾採取任何預防行動的其他公司有更好的長期獲利能力，2. 不確定性愈高，警覺性與獲利能力之間的正向關連愈強，3. 在低不確定性的環境中，高警覺性的類型並不帶來任何效益，4.警覺性高的公司對投資機會的改變較為敏感。實證結果符合理論預期。

Research in psychology and biology shows that individuals differ in their responsiveness, i.e., ability to recognize changes in the environment. We argue that this ability is relevant to corporate decision making under uncertainty. Using the literatures in economics, finance, and decision analysis as our guide, we conduct empirical tests in which we infer the ability of a firm to recognize emerging developments (we dub such firms alert) from their propensity to take costly precautionary actions in the face of uncertainty. Using a large sample of U.S.-listed firms over the 1988 ~ 2010 period, we report that (1) alert firms exhibit greater long-term profitability than inert firms that have never taken precautionary actions, (2) the positive association between being alert and profitability monotonically increases in uncertainty, (3) being alert does not convey any discernible benefits in low-uncertainty environments, and (4) alert firms are more responsive to changes in investment opportunities. The results are consistent with the theoretical predictions.