百年糾纏（三）：統一、獨立或另有突破－中國與台灣

One Hundred Years of Entanglement III: Unification, Independence or Other Possibilities—China and Taiwan

這篇研究札記是我稱之為「百年糾纏：文化的、政治的、與疆域的」系列第三篇，檢視近百年來中國與台灣千絲萬縷的關係，尤其偏重二戰後，國民黨政權撤退到台灣至今，中國與台灣的互動及統獨的爭論，並檢討在統獨之外另闢途徑的可能性，如某種形式的國協、邦聯或聯邦主義。如果統、獨、或國協、邦聯、聯邦主義都不可能被採納，那麼我將進一步探討在台灣內部還有什麼新的力量、新的族群可能帶來人口與社會結構的改變，進而突破當今的困境？這二、三十年來，台灣基於經濟發展的需求，大量開放移工；與此同時，台灣若干階層，尤其是低下階層的男性公民娶不到妻子，因而積極從東南亞與中國大陸引進外籍配偶。多年來他們深受剝削與歧視，但與此同時，台灣逐步受到國際人權標準的約束，不能不重視他們的基本權利。伴隨移工與新移民這兩個族群人數日增，他們的工作與生活條件改善，並進而融入社會，爭取公民權；假以時日，他們將成為促進台灣政治與社會變遷不容忽視的力量。影響所及，台灣勢必逐步轉型為一個在文化、種族、語言上多元的社會；不僅台灣內部統獨對峙的局面要產生變化，台灣與中國大陸之間也一定出現新的關係，不再局限於「同文同種」、「儒家思想」的框架中尋找答案。

This research note, the third in a series of sketches on what I entitle “One hundred years of entanglement: cultural, political and territorial,” will tackle the complex and ever changing relations between China and Taiwan. It is divided into three parts: the first part will describe and analyze the controversy of unification versus independence in Taiwan, with the Chinese Nationalist Party leaning towards unification and the Democratic Progressive Party to the side of independence. Then, I will proceed to the pressures from Beijing for unification by military threats and trade inducements, and the resistance put up by the government, the Democratic Progressive Party and a large segment of the civil society. The second part of this note will concentrate on the position and attitude of the civil society organizations and NGOs in Taiwan and abroad for independence. They merged with the Democratic Progressive Party in the 1990s. I will briefly survey the careers of a number of their prominent leaders, so as to indicate the tortuous and slippery path the politicians trod. In the third part I would present the solutions that have been endorsed by many politicians and scholars to break the deadlock, namely some kinds of commonwealth, confederation or federation schemes. However, these solutions were and still are absolutely rejected by Beijing. Against this background, I propose to appeal to two new groups to break the deadlock. They are the migrant workers and the new immigrants. Since the early 1990s the need for workers to sustain economic development has opened the door to immigrant workers and the need for young women of marriageable age for Taiwanese men has brought “foreign spouses” to Taiwan. The former primarily came from Southeast Asia, and the latter from China and Southeast Asia. Both groups have been severely exploited and discriminated against. However, the past thirty years have also witnessed an effort in Taiwan to abide by international human rights law, thus providing legitimacy for these two groups to strive for their rights and freedoms they so clearly deserve. All indicators point to the probability that they will be given citizenship in the not so distant future. Within ten to twenty years, they will definitely become a powerful political force in Taiwan and their diverse cultural heritage will no doubt contribute to a culturally pluralistic and more democratic society. At that point, internal politics in Taiwan, the confrontation between the Chinese Nationalist Party and the Democratic Progressive Party, will be revamped, and the dispute between China and Taiwan redefined, no longer framed by the legacy of “the same culture and the same race” and traditional Confucian ethics. A new beginning will then be possible.