高負債比觀點分析家族業外部監控與營運策略之實證研究

Empirical Study of Outsider Monitoring and Business Operation Strategy on High Debt Ratio Family Company

本文係以企業會計資訊與統計科學方法，高負債比率觀點分析董事長兼任總經理之家族業，找出公司治理的顯著變數與營運策略（Operations Strategy），建構高槓桿家族業之信用風險模型。實證分析上，使用常態性檢定（K-S檢定）、平均數檢定（M-U檢定）、Pearson與VIF相關檢定、多元Logistic迴歸分析，建立家族業信用風險模型。實證結果發現，負債比率大於50%且董事長兼任總經理的家族業（經營權與所有權未分開），1. 影響公司治理的主要變數為會計師查核意見；2. 影響公司績效的主要指標為經營能力和獲利能力指標；3. 降低總資產週轉率與增加營業利益率，可增強公司經營能力與獲利能力。研究建議，高槓桿家族業，當董事長兼任總經理（經營權與所有權未分開）之營運策略，宜先行增加由正常營業活動產生利潤能力（提高營業利益率），以購置企業資產之用（降低總資產週轉率），則公司獲利與經營能力增強，同時重視會計師查核意見，可增強公司外部監控（Outsider Monitoring）與公司治理能力，降低高槓桿家族業發生信用風險之機率。實證價值與管理涵義，當經營權與所有權未分開，高槓桿家族業之總資產週轉率（β估計值為正），信用風險發生前一年其勝算比率（Odds Ratio）高達14,018.343，意指若增加企業資產，每增加一單位效果，將降低公司發生信用風險機率幅度達14,017.343倍，效果最為顯著，因此，高槓桿家族業以降低總資產週轉率，為提高企業經營能力最重要因素，降低高槓桿家族業發生信用風險之機率，進而提高公司績效。

The research used accounting data system and statistical science methods, multiple logistic regression analysis against family companies whose debt ratio of capital structure is larger than 50%, from whether chairperson serving as general manager in the same time (whether ownership and management are not separated) and to find out the influential variables that affects corporate governance and operation strategy to build the credit risk model for companies (especially for high-financial leverage family companies). Empirical analysis, using normality test (K-S test), means test (M-U test), Pearson test and variable inflationary factor (VIF) test, and used multiple logistic regression analysis to build credit risk model for family companies. Findings, The First the key variable affecting corporate governance is audit opinion. Secondly, the major performance indicators were operating ability, profitability. Third, decrease total assets turnover and increase operating profit ratio can enhance corporate operating ability and profitability. This study suggests that the operations strategy for family companies whose corporate chairperson serving as general manager in the same time (inseparable ownership and management), should first increase profitability by normal business operation (increase operating profit ratio); then to buy its own asset (decrease total assets turnover). This then enhances the profitability and operating ability as well as attaching importance to audit opinion; strengthen outsider monitoring and corporate governance and to decrease the probability of the occurrence of credit risk for high-financial leverage family companies. Implication of this study is under the situation when management and ownership are not separated, the odds ratio of the total assets turnover (positive β estimation value) for high-financial leverage family companies is as high as 14,018.343. That is, if the corporate assets increase, the probability of the occurrence of corporate credit risk for every unit adds up will become 14,017.343 times lower, a significant effect. Therefore, decreasing total assets turnover becomes the most influential factor for family companies to enhance corporate operating ability and to enhance corporate performance by decreasing the probability of the occurrence of credit risk for high-financial leverage family companies.