財富效果與消費者情緒：理論及實證

The Wealth Effect and Consumers’ Sentiment: Evidence from Theoretical and Empirical Analyses

本文試圖分析消費者情緒對消費－－財富間的關係－－即所謂的財富效果。我們的實證分析驗證：財富效果會受到以情緒指標所為門檻所分化之不同區域而有不同的表現。當情緒指標大於所估計之門檻值（即樂觀的區段）時，財富提高可助消費者旳支出較一般支出來得高。相反的，當情緒指標小於所估計之門檻值（即悲觀的區段）時，財富的變動與消費支出間為一負相關的效果。據此，儘管消費者的財富是增加的，悲觀（樂觀）情緒之消費者將減少（增加）他們的消費支出。

This paper attempts to analyze the effect of sentiment on the consumption-wealth relation-that is, the wealth effect. Our empirical analyses verify that the wealth effect represents a difference between two different regimes split by the threshold related to different sentiment sectors. When the sentiment indices are larger than the estimated threshold (i.e., an optimistic situation), raising wealth drives consumers more consumption expenditures than normal ones. When the sentiment indices are less than the estimated threshold (i.e., a pessimistic situation), changes of wealth have a negative effect on consumption expenditures. As a whole, consumers, with pessimistic (optimistic) sentiment, will cut (raise) their consumption expenditures despite their wealth is increasing.